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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2011.13.4.192

Simulation of the Effects of the A1B Climate Change Scenario on the Potential Yield of Winter Naked Barley in Korea  

Shim, Kyo-Moon (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Min, Sung-Hyun (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Lee, Deog-Bae (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Kim, Gun-Yeob (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Jeong, Hyun-Cheol (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Lee, Seul-Bi (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Kang, Ki-Keong (Division of Climate Change & Agro-ecology, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.13, no.4, 2011 , pp. 192-203 More about this Journal
Abstract
The CERES-Barley crop simulation model was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of winter naked barley in Korea. Fifty six sites over the southern part of the Korean Peninsula were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic conditions. Based on the A1B climate change scenarios of Korea, the present climatological normal (1971-2000) and the three future ones (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were considered in this study. The three future normals were divided by three environmental conditions with changes in: (1) temperature only, (2) carbon dioxide concentration only, and (3) both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The agreement between the observed and simulated outcomes was reasonable with the coefficient of determination of grain yield to be 0.78. We concluded that the CERES-Barley model was suitable for predicting climate change impacts on the potential yield of winter naked barley. The effect of the increased temperature only with the climate change scenario was negative to the potential yield of winter naked barley, which ranges from -34 to -9% for the three future normals. However, the effect of the elevated carbon dioxide concentration only on the potential yield of winter naked barley was positive, ranging from 6 to 31% for the three future normals. For the elevated conditions of both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, the potential yields increased by 8, 15, and 13% for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 normals, respectively.
Keywords
A1B Climate change scenario; Climate change impact; Naked barley; Potential yield;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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