Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.1.071

Prediction of Corn Yield based on Different Climate Scenarios using Aquacrop Model in Dangme East District of Ghana  

Twumasi, George Blay (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
Junaid, Ahmad Mirza (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
Shin, Yongchul (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Science & Technology, Kyungpook National University)
Choi, Kyung Sook (Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Science & Technology, Kyungpook National University)
Publication Information
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers / v.59, no.1, 2017 , pp. 71-79 More about this Journal
Abstract
Climate change phenomenon is posing a serious threat to sustainable corn production in Ghana. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the rain-fed corn yield in the Dangme East district, Ghana by using Aquacrop model with a daily weather data set of 22-year from 1992 to 2013. Analysis of the weather data showed that the area is facing a warming trend as the numbers of years hotter and drier than the normal seemed to be increasing. Aquacrop model was assessed using the limited observed data to verify model's sufficiency, and showed credible results of $R^2$ and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). In order to simulate the corn yield response to climate variability four climate change scenarios were designed by varying long-term average temperature in the range of ${\pm}1^{\circ}C{\sim}{\pm}3^{\circ}C$ and average annual rainfall to ${\pm}5%{\sim}{\pm}30%$, respectively. Generally, the corn yield was negatively correlated to temperature rise and rainfall reduction. Rainfall variations showed more prominent impacts on the corn yield than that of temperature variations. The reduction in average rainfall would instantly limit the crop growth rate and the corn yield irrespective of the temperature variations.
Keywords
corn yield; climate change; aquacrop; Ghana;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 Abedinpour, M., A. Sarangi, T. B. S. Rajput, M. Singh, H. Pathak, and T. Ahmad, 2012. Performance evaluation of Aquacrop model for maize crop in a semi-arid environment. Agricultural Water Management 110: 55-66.   DOI
2 Armah, F. A., J. O. Odoi, G. T. Yengoh, S. Obiri, D. O. Yawson, and E. K. A. Afrifa, 2011. Food security and climate change in drought-sensitive savanna zones of Ghana. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16(3): 291-306.   DOI
3 Armah, F. A., D. O. Yawson, G. T. Yengoh, J. O. Odoi, and E. K. A. Afrifa. 2010. Impact of floods on livelihoods and vulnerability of natural resource dependent communities in northern Ghana. Water 2(2): 120.   DOI
4 Browne Klutse, N. A., K. Owusu, D. C. Adukpo, F. Nkrumah, K. Quagraine, A. Owusu, and W. J. Gutowski, 2013. Farmer's observation on climate change impacts on maize (zea mays) production in a selected agro-ecological zone in Ghana. Research Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Management 2(12): 394.
5 Doss, C. R. and M. L. Morris, 2000. How does gender affect the adoption of agricultural innovations? The case of impoved maize technology in Ghana. Agricultural Economics 25(1): 27-39.   DOI
6 Farooq, M., T. Aziz, A. Wahid, D. -J. Lee, and K. H. Siddique, 2009. Chilling tolerance in maize: Agronomic and physiological approaches. Crop and Pasture Science 60(6): 501-516.   DOI
7 Jones, P. G. and P. K. Thornton, 2003. The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environmental Change 13(1): 51-59.   DOI
8 Heng, L. K., T. Hsiao, S. Evett, T. Howell, and P. Steduto, 2009. Validating the FAO Aquacrop model for irrigated and water deficient field maize. Agronomy Journal 101(3): 488-498.   DOI
9 Hsiao, T. C., L. Heng, P. Steduto, B. Rojas-Lara, D. Raes, and E. Fereres, 2009. Aquacrop-the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: Iii. Parameterization and testing for maize. Agronomy Journal 101(3): 448-459.   DOI
10 IPCC 2007. Climate change 2007: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva, Switzerland.
11 Manzanas, R., L. K. Amekudzi, K. Preko, S. Herrera, and J. M. Gutierrez, 2014. Precipitation variability and trends in Ghana: An intercomparison of observational and reanalysis products. Climatic Change 124(4): 805-819.   DOI
12 Masanganise, J., B. Chipindu, T. Mhizha, and E. Mashonjowa, 2012. Model prediction of maize yield responses to climate change in north-eastern Zimbabwe. African Crop Science Journal 20(2): 505-515.
13 Mkhabela, M. S. and P. R. Bullock, 2012. Performance of the FAO Aquacrop model for wheat grain yield and soil moisture simulation in western Canada. Agricultural Water Management 110: 16-24.   DOI
14 Owusu, K. and P. Waylen, 2009. Trends in spatio-temporal variability in annual rainfall in Ghana (1951-2000). Weather 64(5): 115-120.   DOI
15 Tachie-Obeng, E., E. Gyasi, S. Adiku, M. Abekoe, and G. Zierrogel, 2010. Farmers' adaptation measures in scenarios of climate change for maize production in semi-arid zones of Ghana. 2nd International Conference: Climate Sustainability and Development in Semi-arid Regions, August 16-20,2010, Fortaleza-Ceara, Brazil.
16 Raes, D., P. Steduto, T. C. Hsiao, and E. Fereres, 2009. Aquacrop the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: Ii. Main algorithms and software description. Agronomy Journal 101(3): 438-447.   DOI
17 Rosenzweig, C., A. Iglesias, X. Yang, P. R. Epstein, and E. Chivian. 2001. Climate change and extreme weather events; implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Global change & human health 2(2): 90-104.   DOI
18 Rosenzweig, C., F. N. Tubiello, R. Goldberg, E. Mills, and J. Bloomfield, 2002. Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environmental Change 12(3): 197-202.   DOI
19 Roudier, P., B. Sultan, P. Quirion, and A. Berg, 2011. The impact of future climate change on west African crop yields: What does the recent literature say? Global Environmental Change 21(3): 1073-1083.   DOI
20 Tachie-Obeng, E., P. B. I. Akponikpe, and S. Adiku, 2013. Considering effective adaptation options to impacts of climate change for maize production in Ghana. Environmental Development 5: 131-145.   DOI
21 Thornton, P., P. Jones, T. Owiyo, R. Kruska, M. Herrero, P. Kristjanson, A. Notenbaert, N. Bekele, A. Omolo, With Contributions from Orindi V, A. Adwerah, B. Otiende, A. Ochieng, S. Bhadwal, K. Anantram, S. Nair, and Kumar 2006. Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa. Report to the department for international development, ilri, nairobi, kenya. Pp 171.
22 Waongo, M., P. Laux, and H. Kunstmann, 2015. Adaptation to climate change: The impacts of optimized planting dates on attainable maize yields under rainfed conditions in Burkina Faso. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 205: 23-39.   DOI