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http://dx.doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2016.58.5.001

Development of Drought Forecasting Techniques Using Nonstationary Rainfall Simulation Method  

Kim, Tae-Jeong (Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering)
Park, Jong-Hyeon (Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering)
Jang, Seok-Hwan (Daejin University, Department of Civil Engineering)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering)
Publication Information
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers / v.58, no.5, 2016 , pp. 1-10 More about this Journal
Abstract
Drought is a slow-varying natural hazard that is characterized by various factors such that reliable drought forecasting along with uncertainties estimation has been a major issue. In this study, we proposed a stochastic simulation technique based scheme for providing a set of drought scenarios. More specifically, this study utilized a nonstationary Hidden markov model that allows us to include predictors such as climate state variables and global climate model's outputs. The simulated rainfall scenarios were then used to generate the well-known meteorological drought indices such as SPI, PDSI and PN for the three dam watersheds in South Korea. It was found that the proposed modeling scheme showed a capability of effectively reproducing key statistics of the observed rainfall. In addition, the simulated drought indices were generally well correlated with that of the observed.
Keywords
Drought; Uncertainty; Scenario; Hidden Markov Model;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
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