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http://dx.doi.org/10.12653/jecd.2013.20.2.0511

Forecasting of Foreign Tourism demand in Kyeongju  

Son, Eun Ho (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration)
Park, Duk Byeong (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration)
Publication Information
Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development / v.20, no.2, 2013 , pp. 511-533 More about this Journal
Abstract
The study used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the number of tourists to Kyeongju foreign in a uni-variable time series. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from 1995 to 2010. A total of 192 observations were used for data analysis. The date showed that a big difference existed between on-season and off-season of the number of foreign tourists in Kyeongju. In the forecast multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0) $(4,0,0)_{12}$ model was found the most appropriate model. Results show that the number of tourists was 694 thousands in 2011, 715 thousands in 2012, 725 thousands in 2013, 738 thousands in 2014, and 884 thousands in 2015. It was suggested that the grasping of the Kyeongju forecast model was very important in respect of how experts in tourism development, policy makers or planners would establish marketing strategies to allocate services in Kyeongju as a tourist destination and provide tourism facilities efficiently.
Keywords
Tourism Demand; Seasonal ARIMA Model; Forecasting;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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