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Estimation of the Number of Korean Cattle Using ARIMA Model  

Jeon, Sang-Gon (Dept. of Agricultural Econ., Gyeongsang National Univ. (Insti. of Agric. & Life Sci.))
Park, Han-Ul (Graduate school, Dept. of Agricultural Econ., Gyeongsang National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of agriculture & life science / v.45, no.5, 2011 , pp. 115-126 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper estimates the number of Korean cattle using time-series ARIMA model. This study classifies the structure of the number of cattle into six indexes to reflect the characteristics of cattle. This study apply ARIMA model to these six indexes according to Box-Jenkins procedure to identify, estimate and predict. The rates of slaughter for aged female and aged male cow is analyzed as non-stationary time series which has unit roots and other 4 indexes is analyzed as stationary time series. The differencing is applied to get rid of non-stationarity for the non-stationary time series. The results show that the number of cattle will be reduced from 2012 as a higher point and rebounded from 2018 as a lower point.
Keywords
Korean cattle; Number of cattle; estimation; ARIMA; Time series;
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