Global Carbon Budget and Ocean Buffering against Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

The natural carbon cycle has been perturbed since the mid-19th century by anthropogenic CO$_2$emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation due to population growth and industrialization. The current study simulated the global carbon cycle for the past 42 years using an eight-box carbon cycle model. The results showed that since the terrestrial biospheric carbon sink was roughly offset by the deforestation source, the fossil fuel emission source was partitioned between the atmospheric and oceanic sinks. However, the partitioning ratio between the atmosphere and the ocean exhibited a change, that is, the carbon accumulation rate was faster in the atmosphere than in the ocean, due to a decrease in the so-called ocean buffering capacity. It was found that the ocean buffering capacity to take up excess CO$_2$decreased by 50% in terms of the buffer factor over the past 42 years. Accordingly, these results indicate that if the current CO$_2$emission trend continues, the future rate of increase in the atmospheric CO$_2$concentration will accelerate.