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http://dx.doi.org/10.9719/EEG.2011.44.2.135

Prediction of Seasonal Nitrate Concentration in Springs on the Southern Slope of Jeju Island using Multiple Linear Regression of Geographic Spatial Data  

Jung, Youn-Young (Groundwater department, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM))
Koh, Dong-Chan (Groundwater department, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM))
Kang, Bong-Rae (Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Institute of Environmental Resources Research)
Ko, Kyung-Suk (Groundwater department, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM))
Yu, Yong-Jae (Department of Geology and Earth Environmental Sciences, Chungnam National University)
Publication Information
Economic and Environmental Geology / v.44, no.2, 2011 , pp. 135-152 More about this Journal
Abstract
Nitrate concentrations in springs at the southern slope of Jeju Island were predicted using multiple linear regression (MLR) of spatial variables including hydrogeological parameters and land use characteristics. Springs showed wide range of nitrate concentrations from <0.02 to 86 mg/L with a mean of 20 mg/L. Spatial variables were generated for the circular buffer when the optimal buffer radius was assigned as 400 m. Selected regression models were tested using the p values and Durbin-Watson statistics. Explanatory variables were selected using the adjusted $R^2$, Cp (total squared error) and AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion), and significance. In addition, mutual linear relations between variables were also considered. Small portion of springs, usually <10% of total samples, were identified as outliers indicating limitations of MLR using circular buffers. Adjusted $R^2$ of the proposed models was improved from 0.75 to 0.87 when outliers were eliminated. In particular, the areal proportion of natural area had the greatest influence on the nitrate concentrations in springs. Among anthropogenic land uses, the influence of nitrate contamination is diminishing in the following order of orchard, residential area, and dry farmland. It is apparent quality of springs in the study area is likely to be controlled by land uses instead of hydrogeological parameters. Most of all, it is worth highlighting that the contamination susceptibility of springs is highly sensitive to nearby land uses, in particular, orchard.
Keywords
spring; nitrate contamination; multiple linear regression; volcanic aquifer; land use;
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