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http://dx.doi.org/10.7857/JSGE.2015.20.3.051

A Development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo History Matching Technique for Subsurface Characterization  

Jeong, Jina (Department of Geology, Kyungpook National University)
Park, Eungyu (Department of Geology, Kyungpook National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment / v.20, no.3, 2015 , pp. 51-64 More about this Journal
Abstract
In the present study, we develop two history matching techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method where radial basis function and Gaussian distribution generated by unconditional geostatistical simulation are employed as the random walk transition kernels. The Bayesian inverse methods for aquifer characterization as the developed models can be effectively applied to the condition even when the targeted information such as hydraulic conductivity is absent and there are transient hydraulic head records due to imposed stress at observation wells. The model which uses unconditional simulation as random walk transition kernel has advantage in that spatial statistics can be directly associated with the predictions. The model using radial basis function network shares the same advantages as the model with unconditional simulation, yet the radial basis function network based the model does not require external geostatistical techniques. Also, by employing radial basis function as transition kernel, multi-scale nested structures can be rigorously addressed. In the validations of the developed models, the overall predictabilities of both models are sound by showing high correlation coefficient between the reference and the predicted. In terms of the model performance, the model with radial basis function network has higher error reduction rate and computational efficiency than with unconditional geostatistical simulation.
Keywords
Bayesian inversion; History matching; Subsurface characterization; Markov chain Monte Carlo;
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