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http://dx.doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2012.33.1.39

An Estimation of Probable Precipitation and an Analysis of Its Return Period and Distributions in Busan  

Lim, Yun-Kyu (Department of Environmental Education, Korea National University of Education)
Moon, Yun-Seob (Department of Environmental Education, Korea National University of Education)
Kim, Jin-Seog (Cent for gas analysis, Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science)
Song, Sang-Keun (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University)
Hwang, Yong-Sik (Korea Research Center for Asbestos Related Diseases, Pusan National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean earth science society / v.33, no.1, 2012 , pp. 39-48 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, a statistical estimation of probable precipitation and an analysis of its return period in Busan were performed using long-term precipitation data (1973-2007) collected from the Busan Regional Meteorological Administration. These analyses were based on the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation, the goodness-of-fit test of chi-square ($x^2$) and the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), and the generalized logistics (GLO) for optimum probability distribution. Moreover, the spatial distributions with the determination of probable precipitation were also investigated using precipitation data observed at 15 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) in the target area. The return periods for the probable precipitation of 245.2 and 280.6 mm/6 hr with GLO distributions in Busan were estimated to be about 100 and 200 years, respectively. In addition, the high probable precipitation for 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-hour durations was mostly distributed around Dongrae-gu site, all coastal sites in Busan, Busanjin and Yangsan sites, and the southeastern coastal and Ungsang sites, respectively.
Keywords
probable precipitation; return period; probability weighted moments; goodness-of-fit test; generalized logistics;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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