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Change Prediction for Potential Habitats of Warm-temperate Evergreen Broad-leaved Trees in Korea by Climate Change  

Yun, Jong-Hak (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource)
Nakao, Katsuhiro (Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute)
Park, Chan-Ho (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource)
Lee, Byoung-Yoon (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource)
Oh, Kyoung-Hee (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology / v.25, no.4, 2011 , pp. 590-600 More about this Journal
Abstract
The research was carried out for prediction of the potential habitats of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees under the current climate(1961~1990) and three climate change scenario(2081~2100) (CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2 and HADCM3-A2) using classification tree(CT) model. Presence/absence records of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees were extracted from actual distribution data as response variables, and four climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; and winter precipitation, PRW) were used as predictor variables. Potential habitats(PH) was predicted 28,230$km^2$ under the current climate and 77,140~89,285$km^2$ under the three climate change scenarios. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 8,274$km^2$ and the proportion of PHLU within PH was 29.3% under the current climate. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 35,177~45,170$km^2$ and increased 26.9~36.9% under the three climate change scenarios. The expansion of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees by climate change progressed habitat fragmentation by restriction of land use. The habitats increase of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees had been expected competitive with warm-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest and suggested the expand and northward shift of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest zone.
Keywords
CLASSIFICATION TREE MODEL; LAND USE; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION;
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