Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.14249/eia.2018.27.5.489

Analysis of Future Bioclimatic Zones Using Multi-climate Models  

Choi, Yuyoung (Dept. of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
Lim, Chul-Hee (Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources, Korea University)
Ryu, Jieun (Environmental GIS/RS Center, Korea University)
Jeon, Seongwoo (Dept. of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
Publication Information
Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment / v.27, no.5, 2018 , pp. 489-508 More about this Journal
Abstract
As climate changes, it is necessary to predict changes in the habitat environment in order to establish more aggressive adaptation strategies. The bioclimatic classification which clusters of areas with similar habitats can provide a useful ecosystem management framework. Therefore, in this study, biological habitat environment of Northeast Asia was identified through the establishment of the bioclimatic zones, and the impac of climate change on the biological habitat was analyzed. An ISODATA clustering was used to classify Northeast Asia (NEA)into 15 bioclimatic zones, and climate change impacts were predicted by projecting the future spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones based upon an ensemble of 17 GCMs across RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2050s, and 2070s. Results demonstrated that significant changes in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the NEA by 2050s and 2070s. The overall zones moved upward, and some zones were predicted to be greatly expanded or shrunk where we suggested as regions requiring intensive management. This analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem. Also, this could be used more effectively to support decision making on climate change adaptation.
Keywords
Bioclimatic classification; multi-climate models; Northeast Asia; Biodiversity; Conservation strategies;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Liu C, Sun G, McNulty SG, Noormets A, Fang Y. 2017. Environmental controls on seasonal ecosystem evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration ratio as determined by the global eddy flux measurements. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 21(1): 311-322.   DOI
2 Li W, Ciais P, MacBean N, Peng S, Defourny P, Bontemps S. 2016. Major forest changes and land cover transitions based on plant functional types derived from the ESA CCI Land Cover product. International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation. 47: 30-39.   DOI
3 Mackey BG, McKenney DW, Yang YQ, McMahon JP, Hutchinson MF. 1996. Site regions revisited: a climatic analysis of Hills' site regions for the province of Ontario using a parametric method. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 26(3): 333-354.   DOI
4 Metzger MJ, Brus DJ, Bunce RG, Carey H, Goncalves PD, Honrado JP, Jongman RHG, Trabucco A, Zomer R. 2013b. Environmental stratifications as the basis for national, European and global ecological monitoring. Ecological Indicators. 33: 26-35.   DOI
5 Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHH, Mucher CA, Watkins JW. 2005. A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Global ecology and biogeography. 14(6): 549-563.   DOI
6 Metzger MJ, Bunce RG, Jongman RH, Sayre R, Trabucco A, Zomer R. 2013a. A high resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 22(5): 630-638.   DOI
7 National Institute of Environmental Research. 2007. Assessments of Ecosystems Sensitive to Climate Change(I) : With Emphasis on Bioclimatic Classification.
8 David MO, Eric D, Eric DW, Neil DB, George VNP, Emma CU, Jennifer AD, Illanga I, Holly ES, John CM, Colby JL, Thomas FA, Taylor HR, Yumiko K, John F, Lamoreux WW, Wettengel PH, Kenneth RK. 2001. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: A new map of life on Earth. BioScience. 51: 933-938.   DOI
9 Noss RF, Dobson AP, Baldwin R, Beier P, Davis CR, Dellasala DA, Francis J, Locke H, Nowak K, Lopez R, Reining C, Trombulak SC, Tabor G. Bolder thinking for conservation. Conservation Biology 26: 1-4.
10 O'Donnell MS, Ignizio DA. 2012. Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 691: 10 p.
11 Park CY, Choi YE, Kwon YA, Kwon JI, Lee HS. 2013. Studies on changes and future projections of subtropical climate zones and extreme temperature events over South Korea using high resolution climate change scenario based on PRIDE model. Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers. 19. [Korean Literature]
12 Park SU, Koo KA, Kong W. 2016. Potential impact of climate change on distribution of warm temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees in the Korean Peninsula. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society. 51(2): 201-217. [Korean Literature]
13 Parr TW, Sier AR, Battarbee RW, Mackay A, Burgess J. 2003. Detecting environmental change: Science and society-Perspectives on long-term research and monitoring in the 21st century. Sci. Total Environ. 310: 1-8.   DOI
14 Staudinger MD, Carter SL, Cross MS, Dubois NS, Duffy JE, Enquist C, Duffy JE, Enquist C, Griffis R, Hellmann JJ, Lawler JJ, O'Leary J, Morrison SA, Sneddon L, Stein BA, Thompson LM, Turner W. 2013. Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 11(9): 465-473.   DOI
15 Ren JL, Li QF, Yu MX, Li HY. 2012. Variation trends of meteorological variables and their impacts on potential evaporation in Hailar region. Water Science and Engineering. 5(2): 137-144.   DOI
16 Sheldon KS, Leache AD, Cruz FB. 2015. The influence of temperature seasonality on elevational range size across latitude: a test using L iolaemus lizards. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 24(6): 632-641.   DOI
17 Shin JH, Kim CM. 1996. Ecosystem classification in Korea (I): Ecoregion classification. Korea Forest Reserach Institute. ForestScience. 54: 188-189. [Korean Literature]
18 Shin Y, Jung H. 2015. Assessing uncertainty in future climate change in Northeast Asia using multiple CMIP5 GCMs with four RCP scenarios. J.Environ. Impact Assess. 24(3): 205-216. [Korean Literature]   DOI
19 Soteriades AD, Murray-Rust D, Trabucco A, Metzger MJ. 2017. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification. Environmental Research Letters. 12(8): 084002.   DOI
20 Svenning JC, Sandel B. 2013. Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change. American Journal of Botany. 100(7): 1266-1286.   DOI
21 UNEP. 1992. World Atlas of Desertification.
22 UNESCO. 1979. Map of the world distribution of arid regions: explanatory note. MAP Technical Notes 7, UNESCO: Paris, 54.
23 WWF. 2015. Impact of Climate Change on Species.
24 Beaumont LJ, Pitman A, Perkins S, Zimmermann NE, Yoccoz NG, Thuiller W. 2011. Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 201007217.
25 Xu L, Myneni RB, Chapin IFS, Callaghan TV, Pinzon JE, Tucker CJ, Zhu Z, Bi J, Ciais P, Tommervik H, Euskirchen ES, Forbes BC, Piao SL, Anderson BT, Ganguly S, Nemani RR, Goetz SJ, Beck PSA, Bunn AG, Cao C, Stroeve JC. 2013. Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Climate Change. 3(6): 581.   DOI
26 Yokoo Y, Sivapalan M, Oki T. 2008. Investigating the roles of climate seasonality and landscape characteristics on mean annual and monthly water balances. Journal of Hydrology. 357(3-4): 255-269.   DOI
27 Zomer RJ, Trabucco A, Wang M, Lang R, Chen H, Metzger MJ, Smajgl A, Beckschafer P, Xu J. 2014. Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China. Biological Conservation. 170: 264-273.   DOI
28 Allen RG. 2000. Using the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient method over an irrigated region as part of an evapotranspiration intercomparison study. Journal of Hydrology. 229(1-2): 27-41.   DOI
29 Araujo MB, Cabeza M, Thuiller W, Hannah L, Williams PH. 2004. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve selection methods. Global change biology. 10(9): 1618-1626.   DOI
30 Booth TH. 1990. Mapping regions climatically suitable for particular tree species at a global scale. Forest Ecology and Management. 36: 47-60.   DOI
31 IPCC. 2014. Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contri- bution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p.151.
32 Choi S. Lee WK, Kwak DA, Lee S, Son Y, Lim JH, Saborowski J. 2011. Predicting forest cover changes in future climate using hydrological and thermal indices in South Korea. Climate Research. 49(3): 229-245.   DOI
33 Choi Y, Lim CH, Ryu J, Jeon SW. 2017b. Bioclimatic Classification of Northeast Asia Reflecting Social Factors: Development and Characterization. Sustainability. 9(7): 1137.   DOI
34 Choi Y, Lim CH, Ryu J, Dongfan P, Kang JY, Weihong Z, Guishan C, Lee WK, Jeon SW. 2017a. Bioclimatic Classification and Characterization in South Korea. Korea Society of Environmental Restoration Technology. 20(3): 1-18. [Korean Literature]
35 Hannah L, Midgley G, Andelman S, Araujo M, Hughes G, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R, Williams P. 2007. Protected area needs in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 5(3): 131-138.   DOI
36 Coops N, Loughhead A, Ryan P. 2001. Development of daily spatial heat unit mapping from monthly climatic surfaces for the Australian continent. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. 15: 345-361.   DOI
37 Davidson MD. 2017. Equity and the Conservation of Global Ecosystem Services. Sustainability. 9: 339.   DOI
38 Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM. 2011. Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science. 332(6025): 53-58.   DOI
39 Dinerstein E, Olson D, Joshi A, Vynne C, Burgess ND, Wikramanayake E, Hahn N, Palminteri S, Hedao P, Noss R, Hansen M. 2017. An ecoregion-based approach to protecting half the terrestrial realm. BioScience. 67(6): 534-545.   DOI
40 Fick SE, Hijmans RJ. 2017. Worldclim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology.
41 Hargreaves GH, Allen RG. 2003. History and evaluation of Hargreaves evapotranspiration equation. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. 129(1): 53-63.   DOI
42 Hargreaves GH. 1994. Defining and using reference evapotranspiration. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. 120(6): 1132-1139.   DOI
43 Kim G, Kim J, Kim CJ, Jin CS, Suh MS, Park SC, Cha DH. 2014. Climate Change Projections over CORDEX East Asia Domain using Multi-RCMs. Journal of climate research. 9(4): 257-268. [Korean Literature]   DOI
44 Richard JH, David NC, Laurie Y, Erika SZ, Gregory HAF, Stuart C, Peter BL, David JP, Nathan LS, Peter SW, David MG, Eric SH, Connie M, John M. 2010. Guiding concepts for park and wilderness stewardship in an era of global environmental change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 8: 483-490.   DOI
45 Hole DG, Willis SG, Pain DJ, Fishpool LD, Butchart SH, Collingham YC, Rahbek C, Huntley B. 2009. Projected impacts of climate change on a continent wide protected area network. Ecology letters. 12(5): 420-431.   DOI
46 Hong SY, Oh SG, Suh MS, Lee DK, Ahn JB, Kang HS. 2013. Future Climate Changes over North-East Asian Region Simulated by RegCM4 Based on the RCP Scenarios. Journal of climate research. 8(1): 27-44. [Korean Literature]
47 Jeon HS, Cho GS. 2000. A comparison of neural networks and maximum likelihood classifier for the classification of landcover. Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information System. 8(2): 23-33. [Korean Literature]
48 Kim WJ. 2004. Ecoregion classification in Korea based on analysis of geospatial variables. Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program in Landscape Architecture Major Graduate School Seoul National University. [Korean Literature]
49 Kim SJ, Kim MI, Lim CH, Lee WK, Kim BJ. 2017. Applicability Analysis of FAO56 Penman-Monteith Methodology for Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration in Andong Dam Watershed Using Limited Meteorological Data. Journal of Climate Change Research. 8(2): 125-143. [Korean Literature]   DOI
50 Kim JH, Yun JI. 2008. On Mapping Growing Degree-Days (GDD) from Monthly Digital Climatic Surfaces for South Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 10(1): 1-8. [Korean Literature]   DOI
51 Kong WS. 2005. Selection of Vulnerable Indicator Plants by Global Warming. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 41(2-1): 263-273. [Korean Literature]
52 Kwon YA, Kwon WT, Boo KO, Choi YE. 2007. Future projections on subtropical climate regions over South Korea using SRES A1B data. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society. 42. [Korean Literature]
53 Lee H, Kim G, Park C, Cha DH. 2017. A Study of Future Changes of Climate Classification and Extreme Temperature Events over South Korea in Multi Regional Climate Model Simulations. Journal of Climate Research. 12: 149-164.   DOI
54 Lim CH, Yoo S, Choi Y, Jeon SW, Son Y, Lee WK. 2018. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Forest Habitat Suitability and Diversity in the Korean Peninsula. Forests. 9(5): 259.   DOI
55 Lee SG, Seo TC, Jang YA, Lee JG, Nam CW, Choi CS, Um YC. 2012. Prediction of Chinese cabbage yield as affected by planting date and nitrogen fertilization for spring production. Journal of Bio-Environment Control.
56 Lee SC, Choi SH, Lee WK. 2011. Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Distribution by the Climate Change Scenarios. Korean Forest Society. 435-438.
57 Lee WC, Lim YJ. 2002. Phytogeography. Kangwon national university.