Browse > Article

Developing Forest Recreation Forecasting Model Using Panel Date  

Joo, Rin-Won (Korea Forest Research Institute)
Han, Sang-Yoel (Korea National Park Research Institute)
Lee, Seong-Youn (Korea Forest Research Institute)
Park, Chan-Woo (Korea Forest Research Institute)
Kim, Jae-Jun (Korea Forest Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science / v.95, no.4, 2006 , pp. 381-387 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study tried to develop a model which can predict a long-term of forest recreation quantity corresponded with econometrics. Simultaneously this study was conducted with the aim of development of practical matrix which is able to apply forest recreation management with policy-control variables about forest supplement with some problem of former study using only a cross-section analysis. As the results of analyses, forest recreation quantity is affected (-) relation by distance, (+) relation by population of the origin area, the size of forest, and a destination's annual social expenditure. In addition, the distance variable is elastic, however, the other variables are inelastic. This results might correspond to a general gravity model theory about forest recreation quantity.
Keywords
forest recreation; forecasting model; panel data; gravity model;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 김재준, 유병일, 김성일, 김통일, 주린원, 유리화. 2003. 주5일 근무제 도입에 따른 산림 임업분야 영향 및 대응 방안. 임업 연구원 연구보고 '03-07호
2 이상돈, 이종원. 2004. RATS를 이용한 계량경제분석. 박영사
3 Uysal, M. and L.A. Hagan. 1993. Motivation of Pleasure Travel and Tourism. In Encyclopedia of Hospitality and Tourism, M. Khan, M. Olsen and T. Var, eds., pp. 798-810. New York: VNR
4 Dwyer, J.F. 1994. Customer Diversity and the Future Demand for Outdoor Recreation. Rockey Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. General Technical Paper RM-252. United States Department of Agriculture
5 Cordell, H.K., B.K. English, and S.A. Randall. 1993. Effects of Subdivision and Access Restrictions on Private Land Recreation Opportunities. Rockey Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. General Technical Paper RM2.31. United States Department of Agriculture
6 Crompton, J.L. 1979. Motivation for pleasure vocation, Annals of Tourism Research 6: 408-424   DOI   ScienceOn
7 산림청. 2002. 주5일 근무제를 대비한 산림휴양종합대책 수립. 한국공원휴양학회
8 윤여창, 윤영얼. 1996. 산림휴양수요의 예측 : 10개 산악 형 국립공원을 중심으로. 산림경제연구 4(2): 29-36
9 Pyo, S., B. Mihalik, and M. Uysal. 1989. Attraction attributes and motivations: A Canonical correlation analysis. Annals of Tourism Research 16: 277-282   DOI   ScienceOn
10 Cordell. K.K. and J.C. Bergstrom. 1989. Theory and Techniques tor Assessing the Demand and Supply of Outdoor Recreation in the United States. Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. Research Paper SE-275. United States Department of Agriculture
11 신원섭 1998. 야외휴양관리. 도서출판 따님 환경신서
12 English, B.K., C.J. Betz, and J.M. Young, J.C. Bergstrom, and H.K. Cordell. 1993. Regional Demand and Supply Projections for Outdoor Recreation. Rockey Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. General Tcchnical Paper RM-230. United States Department of Agriculture
13 교통개발연구원. 1988. 장기관광수요예측에 관한 연구. 교통개발연구원
14 김재준, 유병일, 김성일, 김통일, 주린원, 유리화. 2003. 우리나라 산림휴양실태 및 수요전망 임업연구원 연구보고 '03-10호
15 국토개발연구원. 1998. 휴양/위락행태의 변화 및 공간확보 방안연구: 관광/위락행태분석 및 변화전망을 중심으로. 국토연 88-17
16 산림청 2001. 산림에 관한 국민의식조사 보고서
17 통계청. 2001. 사회통계조사결과. 통계청
18 Dann, G. 1976. The Holiday was simply fantastic. The Tourist Review 31 (3): 19-13   DOI