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Reliability Analysis of the GCM Data Downscaling Methods for the Climate-Induced Future Air Temperature Changes in the Coastal Zone  

Lee, Khil-Ha (Coastal Development Research Department, KORDI)
Cho, Hong-Yeon (Coastal Development Research Department, KORDI)
Cho, Beom-Jun (Coastal Development Research Department, KORDI)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers / v.20, no.1, 2008 , pp. 34-41 More about this Journal
Abstract
Future impact of anthropogenic climate-induced change on ecological regime has been an issue and information on water temperature is required for estimating coastal aquatic environment. One way to induce water temperature is to relate water temperature to air temperature and GCM is able to provide future air temperature data to do this. However, GCM data of low spatial resolution doesn't incorporate local or sitespecific air temperature in need of application, and downscaling processes are essential. In this study, a linear regression is used to relate nationally averaged air temperature to local area for the time period of 2000-2005. The RMSE for calibration (2000-2005) is 1.584, while the RMSE for validation is 1.675 for the year 2006 and 1.448 for the year 2007. The NSC for calibration (2000-2005) is 0.962, while the NSC for validation is 0.955 for the year 2006 and 0.963 for the year 2007. The results show that the linear regression is a good tool to relate local air temperature to nationally averaged air temperature with $1.0{\sim}2.0^{\circ}C$ of RMSE. The study will contribute to estimate future impact of climate-induced change on aquatic environment in Korean coastal zone.
Keywords
GeM data; downscaling methods; climate change; future air temperature; future water temperature; validation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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