Validation of Statistical Analysis-based Aberrancy Probability Using Marine Simulations

To perform the Maritime Safety Audi Scheme, $10^{-4}$ was constantly applied without adjustment when evaluating the proximity of the fairway. The necessity of applying the different aberrancy probabilities from the different proximity of the fairway depending on the shape of the route and the size of the ship was validated using marine simulations. Marine simulation was performed to evaluate the validity of statistical analysis-based aberrancy probability according to the different shapes of routes and ship size presented in the previous study. As results, the validity of the criterion of the statistical analysis-based aberrancy probability was confirmed by comparing with the results of simulation-based aberrancy probabilities. The results support that the aberrancy probabilities by the types of a vessel could be different based on the type and size of vessels. The results motivate that further investigation is required to find the reasonable criteria of the aberrancy probabilities for the maritime traffic safety audit according to the fairway shape and the size of the vessel.