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http://dx.doi.org/10.17663/JWR.2012.14.3.341

The Assessment of Future Flood Vulnerability for Seoul Region  

Sung, Jang Hyun (국립기상연구소 기후연구과)
Baek, Hee-Jeong (국립기상연구소 기후연구과)
Kang, Hyun-Suk (국립기상연구소 기후연구과)
Kim, Young-Oh (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
Publication Information
Journal of Wetlands Research / v.14, no.3, 2012 , pp. 341-352 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to statistically project future probable rainfall and to quantitatively assess a future flood vulnerability using flood vulnerability model. To project probable rainfall under non-stationarity conditions, the parameters of General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution were estimated using the 1 yr data added to the initial 30 yr base series. We can also fit a linear regression model between time and location parameters after comparing the linear relationships between time and location, scale, and shape parameters, the probable rainfall in 2030 yr was calculated using the location parameters obtained from linear regression equation. The flood vulnerability in 2030 yr was assessed inputted the probable rainfall into flood vulnerability assessment model suggested by Jang and Kim (2009). As the result of analysis, when a 100 yr rainfall frequency occurs in 2030 yr, it was projected that vulnerability will be increased by spatial average 5 % relative to present.
Keywords
non-stationarity; GEV distribution; flood vulnerability;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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