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Estimation of Flash Flood Guidance considering Uncertainty of Rainfall-Runoff Model  

Lee, Keon-Haeng (인하대학교 토목공학과)
Kim, Hung-Soo (인하대학교 사회기반시스템 공학부)
Kim, Soo-Jun (인하대학교 토목공학과)
Kim, Byung-Sik (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실)
Publication Information
Journal of Wetlands Research / v.12, no.3, 2010 , pp. 155-163 More about this Journal
Abstract
The flash flood is characterized as flood leading to damage by heavy rainfall occurred in steep slope and impervious area with short duration. Flash flood occurs when rainfall exceeds Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). So, the accurate estimation of FFG will be helpful in flash flood forecasting and warning system. Say, if we can reduce the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff relationship, FFG can be estimated more accurately. However, since the rainfall-runoff models have their own parameter characteristics, the uncertainty of FFG will depend upon the selection of rainfall-runoff model. This study used four rainfall-runoff models of HEC-HMS model, Storage Function model, SSARR model and TANK model for the estimation of models' uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we derived the confidence limits of rainfall-runoff relationship by four models on 95%-confidence level.
Keywords
Flash Flood Guidance; rainfall-runoff model; uncertainty; Monte Carlo Simulation;
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