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Study on Predictable Program of Fire.Explosion Accident Using Poisson Distribution Function & Societal Risk Criteria in City Gas  

Ko, Jae-Sun (서울시립대학교 화학공학과)
Kim, Hyo (서울시립대학교 화학공학과)
Lee, Su-Kyoung (서울산업대학교 안전공학과)
Publication Information
Fire Science and Engineering / v.20, no.1, 2006 , pp. 6-14 More about this Journal
Abstract
The data of city gas accidents has been collected and analysed for not only predictions of the fire and explosion accidents but also the criteria of societal risk. The accidents of the recent 11 years have been broken up into such 3 groups roughly as "release", "explosion", "fire" d 16 groups in detail. Owing to the Poisson probability distribution functions, 'careless work-explosion-pipeline' and 'joint loosening & erosion-release-pipeline' items respectively have turned out to record the lowest and most frequency among the recent 11-years accidents. And thus the proper counteractions must be carried out. In order to assess the societal risks tendency of the fatal gas accidents and set the more obvious safety policies up, the D. O. Hogon equation and the regression method has been used to range the acceptable range in the F-N curve of the cumulative casualties. The further works requires setting up successive database on the fire and explosion accidents systematically to obtain reliable analyses. Also the standard codification will be demanded.
Keywords
City gas facility; Gas accidents database; Poisson analysis; Probability density function; Cumulative density function; Societal risk; Acceptable risk; Standard code;
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