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The Eire Risk Assessment in Compressed Natural Gas Buses ＆ Gas Station  

Ko, Jae-Sun (서울시립대학교 화학공학과)
Kim, Hyo (서울시립대학교 화학공학과)
Publication Information
Fire Science and Engineering / v.18, no.2, 2004 , pp. 57-67 More about this Journal
Abstract
The results of the risk assessing on general buses, consisting mainly of diesel-fueled buses, show that the frequency of the instantaneous release is 1.4${\times}$10$^{-3}$ /bus/year, from which the probability of the formation of fireball as a sub event becomes 1.7${\times}$104, and show that the leakage from the CNG-fueled buses is 0.002 event/year. Also, the frequency of gradual release due to a crack is estimated at 3.7${\times}$10$^{-3}$ /buses/year, and a subsequent probability at which this could lead to a jet flame as a sub event is 1.2${\times}$10$^{-3}$ This corresponds to 0.04event/year for the CNG-fueled buses. Dividing all the fired casualties by the running distance of diesel-fueled buses, the risk is 0.091 fire fatalities per 100-million miles. And the total fire risk fur CNG buses is approximately 0.17 per 100-million miles of travel. This means that CNG buses is twice or more dangerous than diesel buses. After all CNG buses are more susceptible to the major fires. In the aspect of the reliability of this study, generic models and the failure data used in assessing the risks of CNG buses are appropriate. However, more accurate physics-based models and databases should be supplemented with this study to provide the better results.
Keywords
CNG risk; Transportation risk; Natural gas explosion and fire; Comparative risk;
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