Browse > Article

Diffusion Patterns of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Countries  

Kim, Jin Ki (Korea Aerospace University, School of Business)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society / v.20, no.4, 2017 , pp. 1243-1261 More about this Journal
Abstract
Mobile telecom markets have dramatically increased in the last decade due to a remarkable subscriber base growth. The diffusion patterns of the services are a major concern for mobile carriers preparing those new services. We assume that the diffusion patterns of those services will be similar to those of previous mobile services, and discovering the diffusion patterns of those services is an essential task of mobile carriers for preparing the next mobile services. This study attempts to classify some groups which show similar diffusion patterns of mobile services. Using a traditional diffusion model, this study estimates diffusion patterns of twenty five western European countries. The estimation is based on the monthly penetration ratio of those countries from 1993 to 2004. Based on the estimation, the cluster analysis discovers that there are two different countries groups in terms of mobile diffusion pattern: high imitation countries and low imitation countries. The critical point for classifying the two groups in terms of imitation effect was 0.90. The results provide the basis for developing a causal relationship model which explains the different diffusion pattern of mobile services and planning new networks for the advanced mobile services.
Keywords
Diffusion Model; Mobile telecommunication Services; Innovation effect; Imitation Effect; Bandwagon Effect; Network Externality; Cluster Analysis;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 Mahajan, V., Muller, E. and Bass, F. M. (1990), "New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research", Journal of Marketing, 54(1): 1-26.   DOI
2 Mobile Communications. (1993-2004), Mobile Communications, issue no. 141-391, December 1993 to November 2004, Pearson Professional Ltd.
3 Park, S. and Yoon, S. H. (2005), "Separating Early-adopters from the Majority: The Case of Broadband Internet Access in Korea", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(3): 301-325.   DOI
4 Scaglione, M., Giovannetti, E. and Hamoudia, M. (2015), "The Diffusion of Mobile Social Networking: Exploring Adoption Externalities in Four G7 Countries", International Journal of Forecasting, 31(4): 1159-1170.   DOI
5 Shieh, L. F., Chang, T. H., Fu, H. P., Lin, S. W. and Chen, Y. Y. (2014), "Analyzing the Factors that Affect the Adoption of Mobile Services in Taiwan", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 87: 80-88.   DOI
6 Wade, J. (1995), "Dynamics of Organizational Communities and Technological Bandwagons: An Empirical Investigation of Community Evolution in the Microprocessor Market", Strategic Management Journal, 16(Special): 111-133.   DOI
7 Wareham, J ., Levy, A. and Shi, W. (2004), "Wireless Diffusion and Mobile Computing: Implications for the Digital Divide", Telecommunications Policy, 28(5-6): 439-457.   DOI
8 Wu, F. S. an d Chu, W. L. (2010), "Diffusion Models of Mobile Telephony", Journal of Business Research, 63(5): 497-501.   DOI
9 Zhang, X. (2017), "Exploring the Patterns and Determinants of the Global Mobile Divide", Telematics and Informatics, 34(1): 438-449.   DOI
10 Bass, F. M. (1969), "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables", Management Science, 15(5): 215-227.   DOI
11 Beise, M. (2004), "Lead markets: Country-Specific Drivers of the Global Diffusion of Innovations", Research Policy, 33(6): 997-1018.   DOI
12 Bohlin, A., Gruber, H. and Koutroumpis, P. (2010), "Diffusion of New Technology Generations in Mobile Communications", Information Economics and Policy, 22(1): 51-60.   DOI
13 Botelho, A. and Pinto, L. C. (2004), "The Diffusion of Cellular Phones in Portugal", Telecommunications Policy, 28(5-6): 427-437.   DOI
14 Gruber, H. (2001), "Competition and Innovation: the Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe", Information Economics and Policy, 13(1): 19-34.   DOI
15 Frank, L. D. (2004), "An Analysis of the Effect of the Economic Situation on Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Wireless Communications in Finland", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(4): 391-403.   DOI
16 Gamboa, L. F. and Otero, J. (2009), "An Estimation of the Pattern of Diffusion of Mobile Phones: The Case of Colombia", Telecommunications Policy, 33(10-11): 611-620.   DOI
17 Grantham, A. and Tsekouras, G. (2005), "Diffusion Wireless Applications in a Mobile World", Technology in Society, 27(1): 85-104.   DOI
18 Iimi, A. (2005), "Estimating Demand for Cellular Phone Services in Japan", Telecommunications Policy, 29(1): 3-23.   DOI
19 Gruber, H. and Verboven, F. (2001), "The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services i n the E uropean Un ion", European Economic Review, 45(3): 577-588.   DOI
20 Hair, J. F., Anderson, R. E., Tatham, R. L. and Black, W. C. (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.
21 Ilonen, J., Kamarainen, J.-K., Puumalainen, K., Sundqvist, S. and Kalviainen, H. (2006), "Toward Automatic Forecasts for Diffusion of Innovations", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(2): 182-198.   DOI
22 Kongaut, C. and Bohlin, E. (2016), "Investigating Mobile Broadband Adoption and Usage: A Case o f Smartphon es in Sweden", Telematics and Informatics, 33(3): 742-752.   DOI
23 ITU (2004), World Telecommunication Development Report 2003: Access Indicators for the Information Society: International Telecommunications Union (ITU).
24 Jang, S. L., Dai, S. C. and Sung, S. (2005), "The Pattern and Externality Effect of Diffusion of Mobile T elecommun ications: the Case of the OECD and Taiwan", Information Economics and Policy, 17(2): 133-148.   DOI
25 Kiiski, S. and Pohjola, M. (2002), "Cross-country Diffusion of the Internet", Information Economics and Policy, 14(2): 297-310.   DOI
26 Laffont, J. J. and Tirole, J. (2002), Competition in Telecommunications. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
27 Lee, S., Marcu, M. and Lee, S. ( 2011), "An Empirical Analysis of Fixed and Mobile Broadband Diffusion", Information Economics and Policy, 23(3-4): 227-233.   DOI