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http://dx.doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2018.21.3.019

Forecasting Monthly Agricultural Reservoir Storage and Estimation of Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) Using Meteorological Data Based Multiple Linear Regression Analysis  

LEE, Ji-Wan (Dept. of Civil & Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
KIM, Jin-Uk (Dept. of Civil, Environmental & Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
JUNG, Chung-Gil (Dept. of Civil & Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
KIM, Seong-Joon (Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies / v.21, no.3, 2018 , pp. 19-34 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to estimate monthly agricultural reservoir storage with multiple linear regression model(MLRM) based on reservoir storage and meteorological data. The regression model was developed using 15 years(2002 to 2016) of 3,067 reservoirs by KRC(Korea Rural Community) and 63 meteorological stations by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration), and the MLRM showed the determination coefficient($R^2$) of 0.51~0.95. The MLRM was applied to 9 selected reservoirs among the whole reservoirs and validated with $R^2$ of 0.44~0.81. The ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristics) analysis of Reservoir Drought Index(RDI) classified by comparing the present reservoir storage with normal year(1976~2005 average) reservoir storage showed average value of 0.64 for 2 years(2015~2016) with the highest value of 0.70 for winter period, lowest value of 0.58 for summer period. If 1 to 3 months weather forecasting data such as Glosea5 produced by KMA are applied, the predicted monthly reservoir storage from the MLRM can be a useful information for agricultural drought pre-preparation.
Keywords
Agricultural reservoir; Reservoir storage; Meteorological factors; Multiple linear Regression; Reservoir Drought Index;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 12  (Citation Analysis)
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