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Mortality Forecasting for the Republic of Korea: the Coherent Lee-Carter Method  

Kim, Soo-Young (Vital Statistics Division, Statistics Korea)
Publication Information
Korea journal of population studies / v.34, no.3, 2011 , pp. 157-177 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper examines the performance of the coherent Lee-Carter method for the mortality forecasting for the Republic of Korea combined with Japan and the Taiwan Province of China as a group by comparing it with the separately applied Lee-Carter method. It narrowed the gap of life expectancies between three countries from 6.8 years to 3.0 years in 2050, with higher life expectancy forecasts for the Taiwan Province of China and lower ones for Japan than with the separate forecast. This method did not affect the sex-combined life expectancy forecast for the Republic of Korea, but it accelerated the mortality decline for ages 65 and over and decelerated it for the younger age groups, diminishing sex differentials of life expectancy at a slower speed. It suggests that the integration of regional mortality information into mortality forecasting of one country gives several advantages in terms of short run fit within each country as well as long run convergence between countries, a modification of the age pattern of mortality decline, and a consistent application of the forecasting of subgroups within a country.
Keywords
Mortality forecasting; Lee-Carter method; Coherent Lee-Carter method; Common factor; Specific factor;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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