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http://dx.doi.org/10.5000/EESK.2021.25.2.059

Assessment of Historical Earthquake Magnitudes and Epicenters Using Ground Motion Simulations  

Kim, Seongryong (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Korea University)
Lee, Sang-Jun (The Institute of Basic Science, Korea University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea / v.25, no.2, 2021 , pp. 59-69 More about this Journal
Abstract
Historical records of earthquakes are generally used as a basis to extrapolate the instrumental earthquake catalog in time and space during the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the historical catalogs' input parameters determined through historical descriptions rather than any quantitative measurements are accompanied by considerable uncertainty in PSHA. Therefore, quantitative assessment to verify the historical earthquake parameters is essential for refining the reliability of PSHA. This study presents an approach and its application to constrain reliable ranges of the magnitude and corresponding epicenter of historical earthquakes. First, ranges rather than specific values of ground motion intensities are estimated at multiple locations with distances between each other for selected historical earthquakes by reviewing observed co-seismic natural phenomena, structural damage levels, or felt areas described in their historical records. Based on specific objective criteria, this study selects only one earthquake (July 24, 1643), which is potentially one of the largest historical earthquakes. Then, ground motion simulations are performed for sufficiently broadly distributed epicenters, with a regular grid to prevent one from relying on strong assumptions. Calculated peak ground accelerations and velocities in areas with the historical descriptions on corresponding earthquakes are converted to intensities with an empirical ground motion-intensity conversion equation to compare them with historical descriptions. For the ground motion simulation, ground motion prediction equations and a frequency-wavenumber method are used to consider the effects of possible source mechanisms and stress drop. From these quantitative calculations, reliable ranges of epicenters and magnitudes and the trade-off between them are inferred for the earthquake that can conservatively match the upper and lower boundaries of intensity values from historical descriptions.
Keywords
Historical earthquake; Ground motion prediction equation; Peak ground acceleration; Peak ground velocity; Earthquake intensity;
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