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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2017.30.3.417

A spatial prediction for the flowering and autumnal dates in Korea  

Jin, Hyang Gon (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University)
Kim, Sang Wan (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University)
Kim, Yongku (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.30, no.3, 2017 , pp. 417-426 More about this Journal
Abstract
It is important to predict the flowering dates of Japanese cherry and autumnal dates in Korea. Flowering date is decided by heating requirement with daily maximum and minimum temperature used to calculate the pre-determined heating requirements for flowering. Recent, changes in climate have impacted the flowering season of Japanese cherry in Korea. When compared with the current normal, the flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be about 10 days earlier than in near future normal years. In this paper, we first consider a linear model based on meteorological data that predicts the flowering date and then incorporate a spatial structure into the model. Real data analysis indicates that the proposed approach provides more reasonable predicted dates.
Keywords
autumnal dates; flowering dates; Japanese cherry; meteorological data; spatial prediction;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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