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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2015.28.3.371

Bayesian Analysis for Uncertainty of Radiocarbon Dating  

Lee, Youngseon (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University)
Lee, Jaeyong (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University)
Kim, Jangsuk (Department of Archaeology and Art History, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.28, no.3, 2015 , pp. 371-383 More about this Journal
Abstract
Use of radiocarbon dating is increasing for chronology; however, its variability and discrepancy with existing chronologies can cause doubts in regards to credibility. In this paper, we explore factors that influence radiocarbon dating variabilities. We obtained estimated radiocarbon ages by sending identical samples to several labs multiple times. A Bayesian method was used to analyze the obtained data. From the analysis, we conclude that some factors (such as type of labs and megasamples) can induce variability when estimating radiocarbon age. We identify the size of variability caused by each factor and analyze the estimated variability in each lab corresponds with the reported variability.
Keywords
radiocarbon dating; archaeological chronology; Bayesian statistics; consensus value; variability;
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