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The Analysis of Granger Causality between GDP and R&D Investments in Government, Private, Defense Sectors  

Lee, Jin-Woo (제1기갑여단 15전차대대 작전과)
Kwon, O-Sung (국방대학교 국방관리학부)
Publication Information
Journal of the military operations research society of Korea / v.34, no.1, 2008 , pp. 79-98 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to find the desirable R&D policies in defense area by analyzing causality between GDP and R&D investments in government, private, defense sectors. We have five variables which are composed of GDP, total R&D investment, R&D investments in government, private and defense sectors to figure out the causality between R&D investment in defense sector and other components. In the course of analysis on causality, we took the unit root test of variables to prevent spurious regression. Also we need to take cointegration test about non-stationary variables before the causality test. According to these test results, we took the causality test using ECM(Error Correction Model) for the models which have cointegrating relations. And we took ordinary Granger causality test for model which doesn't have a long-run stationary relationship. As a result of the causality test, it was shown that there exists the long-nu causality to GDP and R&D investments in government and private sectors from other variables. However, there doesn't exist the causality to defense R&D investment from other variables. We found that there doesn't exist the causality between R&D investments in defense and private sectors, and that they are independent.
Keywords
R&D Investment in Defense Sector; Granger Causality; ECM(Error Correction Model);
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