A Model to Explain Temperature Dependent Systemic Infection of Potato Plants by Potato virus Y

The effect of temperature on the rate of systemic infection of potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. cv. Chu-Baek) by Potato virus Y (PVY) was studied in growth chambers. Systemic infection of PVY was observed only within the temperature range of $16^{\circ}C$ to $32^{\circ}C$. Within this temperature range, the time required for a plant to become infected systemically decreased from 14 days at $20^{\circ}C$ to 5.7 days at $28^{\circ}C$. The estimated lower thermal threshold was $15.6^{\circ}C$ and the thermal constant was 65.6 degree days. A systemic infection model was constructed based on experimental data, using the infection rate (Lactin-2 model) and the infection distribution (three-parameter Weibull function) models, which accurately described the completion rate curves to systemic infection and the cumulative distributions obtained in the PVY-potato system, respectively. Therefore, this model was useful to predict the progress of systemic infections by PVY in potato plants, and to construct the epidemic models.