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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0024-1

Future Climate Change Scenarios over Korea Using a Multi-Nested Downscaling System: A Pilot Study  

Hong, Song-You (Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Global Environment Laboratory, Yonsei University)
Moon, Nan-Kyoung (Korea Environment Institute)
Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny (Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Global Environment Laboratory, Yonsei University)
Kim, Jong-Won (Korea Environment Institute)
Publication Information
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences / v.46, no.4, 2010 , pp. 425-435 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study examines a scenario of future summer climate change for the Korean peninsula using a multi-nested regional climate system. The global-scale scenario from the ECHAM5, which has a 200 km grid, was downscaled to a 50 km grid over Asia using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). This allowed us to obtain large-scale forcing information for a one-way, double-nested Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that consists of a 12 km grid over Korea and a 3 km grid near Seoul. As a pilot study prior to the multi-year simulation work the years 1995 and 2055 were selected for the present and future summers. This RSM-WRF multi-nested downscaling system was evaluated by examining a downscaled climatology in 1995 with the largescale forcing from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The changes in monsoonal flows over East Asia and the associated precipitation change scenario over Korea are highlighted. It is found that the RSM-WRF system is capable of reproducing large-scale features associated with the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its associated hydro-climate when it is nested by the NCEP/DOE reanalysis. The ECHAM5-based downscaled climate for the present (1995) summer is found to suffer from a weakening of the low-level jet and sub-tropical high when compared the reanalysis-based climate. Predicted changes in summer monsoon circulations between 1995 and 2055 include a strengthened subtropical high and an intensified mid-level trough. The resulting projected summer precipitation is doubled over much of South Korea, accompanied by a pronounced surface warming with a maximum of about 2 K. It is suggested that downscaling strategy of this study, with its cloud-resolving scale, makes it suitable for providing high-resolution meteorological data with which to derive hydrology or air pollution models.
Keywords
climate change; regional climate; East Asian summer monsoon; ECHAM5; RSM; WRF;
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