Analysis of Temperature Effects on Microbial Growth Parameters and Estimation of Food Shelf Life with Confidence Band

As a way to account for the variability of the primary model parameters in the secondary modeling of microbial growth, three different regression approaches were compared in determining the confidence interval of the temperature-dependent primary model parameters and the estimated microbial growth during storage: bootstrapped regression with all the individual primary model parameter values; bootstrapped regression with average values at each temperature; and simple regression with regression lines of 2.5% and 97.5% percentile values. Temperature dependences of converted parameters (log $q_o$, ${\mu}_{max}^{1/2}$, log $N_{max}$) of hypothetical initial physiological state, maximum specific growth rate, and maximum cell density in Baranyi's model were subjected to the regression by quadratic, linear, and linear function, respectively. With an advantage of extracting the primary model parameters instantaneously at any temperature by using mathematical functions, regression lines of 2.5% and 97.5% percentile values were capable of accounting for variation in experimental data of microbial growth under constant and fluctuating temperature conditions.