New DTR Estimation Method Without Measured Solar and Wind Data

Dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of overhead transmission lines can provide a significant increase in transmission capacity compared to the static thermal rating. However, the DTR are usually estimated by the traditional thermal model of overhead conductor that is highly dependent on the solar, wind speed and wind direction data. Consequently, the estimated DTR would be unreliable and the safety of transmission lines would be reduced when the solar and wind sensors are out of function. To address this issue, this study proposed a novel thermal model of overhead conductor based on the thermal-electric analogy theory and Markov chain. Using this thermal model, the random variation of conductor temperature can be simulated with any specific current level and ambient temperature, even if the solar and wind sensors are out of function or uninstalled. On this basis, an estimation method was proposed to determine the DTR in the form of probability. The laboratory experiments prove that the proposed method can estimate the DTR reliably without measured solar and wind data.