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A Stochastic Approach for Prediction of Partially Measured Concentrations of Benzo[a]pyrene in the Ambient Air in Korea  

Kim, Yongku (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University)
Seo, Young-Kyo (National Institute of Environmental Research)
Baek, Kyung-Min (Department of Environmental Engineering, Yeungnam University)
Kim, Min-Ji (Department of Environmental Engineering, Yeungnam University)
Baek, Sung-Ok (Department of Environmental Engineering, Yeungnam University)
Publication Information
Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment / v.10, no.4, 2016 , pp. 197-207 More about this Journal
Large quantities of air pollutants are released into the atmosphere and hence, must be monitored and routinely assessed for their health implications. This paper proposes a stochastic technique to predict unobserved hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), especially Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), which can have negative effects on human health. The proposed approach constructs a nearest-neighbor structure by incorporating the linkage between BaP and meteorology and meteorological effects. This approach is adopted in order to predict unobserved BaP concentrations based on observed (or forecasted) meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and air quality. The effects of BaP on human health are examined by characterizing the cancer risk. The efficient prediction provides useful information relating to the optimal monitoring period and projections of future BaP concentrations for both industrial and residential areas within Korea.
Benzo[a]pyrene; Cancer risk; Correlation function; K-nearest neighbor approach; Stochastic prediction;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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