Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2020.18.8.169

A Study on the Forecast of Sales of High Level Convenience Store Products Using System Dynamics - Focused on the Icecup and Cigarette  

Kim, Dong-Myung (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
Park, Sung-Hoon (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
Yeo, Gi-Tae (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Digital Convergence / v.18, no.8, 2020 , pp. 169-177 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to forecast the sales of convenience store flagship products with nonlinear characteristics and time series characteristics. According to the results, the sales of 'Ice Cup' began to increase from March, reached the highest value in summer, especially July and August, and then decreased, revealing a seasonal pattern. Cigarettes showed a seasonal pattern of higher sales in summer and lower sales in winter and was predicted to decrease in sales in the future. This study provides an academic implication in that it focused on the top-selling products that affected an increase in financial performance in a specific convenience store, a method that has been hardly adopted by the existing studies.
Keywords
Convenience store; System Dynamics; Financial performance; Seasonality; Forecast;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 M. H. Yoon. (2016). A System Dynamics Model for Quantitative Analysis of Patent Systems. Korean System Dynamics Review, 17(2), 33-56.
2 G. T. Yeo, S. I. Park, H. J. Jung & J. W. Jeon. (2013). Forecasting the Log Cargo Volumes in Incheon Port using the System Dynamics. Korea Logistics Review, 23(1), 107-122. DOI : 10.5394/KINPR.2012.36.6.521
3 D. Vlachos, P. Georgiadis & E. Iakovou. (2007). A system dynamics model for dynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains. Computers & Operations Research, 34(2), 367-394. DOI : 10.1016/j.cor.2005.03.005   DOI
4 K. A. Stave.. (2003). A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas. Journal of Environmental Management, 67(4), 303-313. DOI : 10.1016/S0301-4797(02)00205-0   DOI
5 D. I. Lee, G. S. Hyun, J. H. Lee & H. J. Lee. (2014). The supporting policies for CVS operation efficacy through CVS development simulation. Korea distribution association, 19(4), 117-137.
6 L. B. Sweeney & J. D. Sterman. (2000). Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory. System Dynamics Review: The Journal of the System Dynamics Society, 16(4), 249-286. DOI : 10.1002/sdr.198   DOI
7 C. D. Lewis. (1982). Industrial and business forecasting methods : A practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting. Butterworth scientific.
8 A. R. Kim. (2019). "Coffee" swept the top spot in convenience store sales...We're selling 300 million glasses this year. THE DIGITALTIMES. http://www.dt.co.kr/contents.html?article_no=2019121202109932060005
9 Y. J. Jho. (2020). Ice that sells well even in winter...Ice sales in four seasons of convenience store $\uparrow$. Financial News. https://www.fnnews.com/news/202005071015288836
10 G. D. Hyeon. (2020). GS25, Ice Cup Sales 26%↑...Baseball size 'Big Ball Ice Cup' is released. MEDICAL TODAY. http://www.mdtoday.co.kr/mdtoday/index.html?no=388034
11 S. Y. Ahn. (2018). Even if you sell cigarettes worth 4,500 won, the convenience store owner's share is 204 won. ChosunBiz. https://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2018/07/23/2018072300762.html
12 B. Y. Kim. (2020). Convenience store industry, cause of falling sales and worsening management 'clear'. ENEWS TODAY.. http://www.enewstoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=1402225
13 C. Park. (2020). Seven ghost supermarkets in the mall.What's "cigarette rights"?. KBS NEWS. http://news.kbs.co.kr/news/view.do?ncd=4426682
14 Y. K. Kim, J. W. Jeon & G. T. Yeo. (2014). An Influence Analysis of Port Hinterlands on Container Cargo Volumes of Incheon Port Using System Dynamics. Journal of navigation and port research, 38(6), 701-708. DOI : 10.5394/KINPR.2014.38.6.70   DOI
15 M. K. Kim. (2017). Study on the impact of consumption behavior of convenience store customers on development of convenience store product portfolio. Master dissertation. Kyung Hee University, Seoul.
16 H. H. Kim, J. W. Jeon & G. T. Yeo. (2018). Forecasting Model of Air Passenger Demand Using System Dynamics. Journal of Digital Convergence, 16(5), 137-143. DOI : 10.14400/JDC.2018.16.5.137   DOI
17 H. H. Kim, J. W. Jeon & G. T. Yeo. (2017). Forecasting of Container Cargo Volumes of China using System Dynamics. Journal of Digital Convergence, 15(3), 157-163. DOI : 10.14400/JDC.2017.15.3.157   DOI
18 D. I. Lee, G. S. Hyun, J. H. Lee & H. J. Lee. (2014). The supporting policies for CVS operation efficacy through CVS development simulation. Korea Distribution Association, 19(4), 117-137.
19 S. I. Jeon. (2014). convenience store sociology. Seoul : Minumsa.
20 J. M. Han. (2019). Convenience store industry "Keep, Take It From Me" Ahead of Re-signing 10,000 Stores. Newdaily. http://biz.newdaily.co.kr/site/data/html/2019/10/11/2019101100068.html
21 J. Andreti, N. H. Zhafira, S. S. Akmal & S. Kumar. (2013). The analysis of product, price, place, promotion and service quality on customers' buying decision of convenience store. International Journal of Advances in Management and Economics, 2(6), 72-78.
22 K. H. Lee & S. I. Kim. (2017). A study on development direction of convenience store living platform. Journal of the korea convergence society, 8(8), 203-213. DOI : 10.15207/JKCS.2017.8.8.203   DOI
23 G. S. Hwang & C. H. Lee. (2014). Analysis on the Effects of Location Factors on Sales of Convenience Stores. Journal of Digital Convergence, 12(12), 129-137. DOI : 10.14400/JDC.2014.12.12.129   DOI
24 R. J. Kuo, S. C. Chi & S. S. Kao. (1999). A decision support system for locating convenience store through fuzzy AHP. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 37(1-2), 323-326. DOI : 10.1016/S0360-8352(99)00084-4   DOI
25 C. C. Bianchi. (2009). Investigating consumer expectations of convenience-store attributes in emerging markets: evidence in Chile. Journal of International Consumer Marketing, 21(4), 309-320. DOI : 10.1080/08961530802282240   DOI
26 B. E. Hyeon & J. H. Lee. (2003). A Study on the Actual Condition and Joint Plan of Logistics Activities at Convenience Stores. Distribution business review, 3, 69-85.
27 J. D. Lee. (2006). A study on the determinants of franchisee's revenue in convenience store. Master dissertation. Hanyang University, Ansan.
28 H. S. Jeong. (1994). A study on the Consumer's purchase behavior and consciousness structure for the convenience stores. Master dissertation. Sookmyung University, Seoul.
29 K. H. Choi. (2009). A Study on Revitalizing SMRT's(Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Corp) Convenience Stores. Master dissertation. University of seoul, Seoul.
30 S. J. Kim, J. S. Lee & S. G. Lee. (2008). Dynamic Analysis of ASP Sales Changes : Focused on the Differentiation Strategy of Version Using SD Technology. The Korea Society of Management Information Systems, 2008(1), 454-471.