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http://dx.doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2020.18.10.033

An Analysis of Daily Maximum Traffic Accident Using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution  

Kim, Junseok (Department of Statistics, Daegu University)
Kim, Daesung (Department of Statistics, Daegu University)
Yoon, Sanghoo (Division of Mathematics and Big Data Science, Daegu University)
Publication Information
Journal of Digital Convergence / v.18, no.10, 2020 , pp. 33-39 More about this Journal
Abstract
In order to cope with traffic accidents efficiently, the maximum number of traffic accidents, deaths and serious injuries that can occur during the day should be presented quantitatively. In order to examine the characteristics of traffic accidents in different regions, it was divided into the Seoul metropolitan area, Chungcheong area, Gyeongbuk area, Honam area, and Gyeongnam area and was suitable for the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The parameters of the GEV distribution were estimated by the L-moments, and the Anderson-Darling test and the Cramer-von Mises test confirmed the suitability of the distribution. According to the analysis, the maximum number of traffic accidents that can occur once every 50 years is 401 in the Seoul metropolitan area, 168 in the South Gyeongsang region, 455 in the North Gyeongsang region, 136 in the Chungcheong region and 205 in the South Jeolla region. Compared to the Seoul metropolitan area, which has a large population and car registration, the number of traffic accidents is relatively high due to the large area, mountainous areas, and logistics movement caused by the industrial complex.
Keywords
Generalized extreme value distribution; chi-square test; l-moments; return level; traffic accident;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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