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http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2017.28.2.309

Efficiency of pairwise winning percentage estimators in Korean professional baseball  

Lee, Jang Taek (Department of Applied Statistics, Dankook University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.28, no.2, 2017 , pp. 309-316 More about this Journal
Abstract
In baseball, estimation of winning percentage is critical and many studies for this topic have been actively performed. Pairwise winning percentage estimation using Pythagorean winning percentages of individual teams against other individual teams has the property that the sum of estimated winning percentage totals must be a constant. In this paper, we consider two types of pairwise estimation including linear formula and Pythagorean formula to the Korean baseball data of seasons from 2013 to 2016 under the criterions of RMSE and MAD. In conclusion, pairwise Pythagorean methods have the smaller RMSE and MAD than traditional Pythagorean methods. We suggest the optimal pairwise Pythagorean formula with a fixed exponent. Also we show that there are very little differences of RMSE and MAD between variation in exponent values.
Keywords
Linear; MAD; pairwise; Pythagorean; RMSE; winning percentage;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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