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http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.6.1585

A comparison of formulas to predict a team's winning percentage in Korean pro-baseball  

Lee, Jang Taek (Department of Applied Statistics, Dankook University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.27, no.6, 2016 , pp. 1585-1592 More about this Journal
Abstract
Estimation of winning percentage in baseball has always been particularly interesting to many baseball fans. We have fitted models including linear regression and Pythagorean formula to the Korean baseball data of seasons from 1982 to 2015. Using RMSE criterion for both the linear formula and the Pythagorean formula, we compared two models in predicting the actual winning percentage. Pythagorean expectation is superior to linear formula when there is either high or low winning percentage. Two methods yield very similar efficiencies when the actual winning percentage is about 50%. To understand and use for estimating winning percentage, it is easier linear formula as estimated equations.
Keywords
Linear formula; Pythagorean formula; RMSE; winning percentage;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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