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http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.599

Estimation of the case fatality ratio of MERS epidemics using information on patients' severity condition  

Hwang, Seonyeong (Department of Statistics, Yeungnam University)
Oh, Changhyuck (Department of Statistics, Yeungnam University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.27, no.3, 2016 , pp. 599-607 More about this Journal
Abstract
The first patient of Middle East respiratory syndrome caused by a novel coronavirus infection in Korea was confirmed on May 20, 2015. After that, MERS spread over the country. In recent years, patients of MERS have been found around the Arabian Peninsula and the case fatality ratio of MERS in those area was been reported to range from 30 to 40%. In this paper, we estimate the case fatality ratio of MERS of Korea using data of 186 infections until December 1, 2015. In this study we propose a novel estimator of the case fatality ratio using information of the patients severity condition as well as records on the days of confirmation and death or recovery of the patient. By using publicly available data of the Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control, we evaluate a performance of the estimator and demonstrate a stability of the estimator from the early stage of the epidemic.
Keywords
Case fatality ratio; estimation; Korea; MERS;
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