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Forecasting attendance in the Korean professional baseball league using GARCH models  

Lee, Jang-Taek (Department of Statistics, Dankook University)
Bang, So-Young (Department of Statistics, Dankook University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.21, no.6, 2010 , pp. 1041-1049 More about this Journal
Abstract
In Korean professional baseball, attendance is the largest source of revenue for development of professional baseball and the highest concern of professional baseball teams. So, if there is demand forecasting model, it will be helpful for pennant chasers to work out the strategies for drawing attendance. For this reason, this research intends to suggest the model which estimates Korean professional baseball's attendance and uses all usable variables which have an effect on attendance in limited circumstances. We supposed that dependent variable is attendance as well as several independent variables and error term are homoscedastic variance. And then, we compared the models which assume conditional heteroscedastic variance like GARCH and EGARCH with GARCH-t models which use the assumption that error term's distribution follows student-t distribution. In result of that, we could confirm that the models which were made by using GARCH(1,1)-t made estimates the most accurately among the several models considered.
Keywords
Attendance; demand forecasting model; EGARCH; GARCH; Korean professional baseball;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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