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http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.395

Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan  

Semenova, Yuliya (Department of Neurology, Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology, Semey Medical University)
Pivina, Lyudmila (Department of Internal Medicine, Semey Medical University)
Khismetova, Zaituna (Department of Public Health, Semey Medical University)
Auyezova, Ardak (Head Office, Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health)
Nurbakyt, Ardak (Department of Epidemiology, Evidence Medicine and Biostatistics, Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health)
Kauysheva, Almagul (Department of Research and International Affairs Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health)
Ospanova, Dinara (Department of Public Health, Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education)
Kuziyeva, Gulmira (Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Evidence-Based Medicine, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University)
Kushkarova, Altynshash (Medical College, South Kazakhstan Medical Academy)
Ivankov, Alexandr (Department of Postgraduate Education, Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education)
Glushkova, Natalya (Department of Epidemiology, Evidence Medicine and Biostatistics, Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health)
Publication Information
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health / v.53, no.6, 2020 , pp. 387-396 More about this Journal
Abstract
Objectives: The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available. Methods: We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization's COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks. Results: Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively. Conclusions: Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.
Keywords
COVID-19; Needs assessment; Health resources; Republic of Kazakhstan;
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