Mean Sojourn Time of Preclinical Gastric Cancer in Korean Men: A Retrospective Observational Study

Objectives: This retrospective cohort study aimed to estimate the mean sojourn time (MST) of preclinical gastric cancer in Korean men. Methods: The subjects consisted of voluntary male screenees aged 40 to 69 years who underwent subsequent screening gastroscopies after testing negative at a baseline screening performed between January 2007 and December 2011. A new case was defined if gastric cancer cells were present in the biopsy specimens obtained from gastroscopy. The follow-up period was calculated as the number of person-years between the date of baseline screening gastroscopy and positive findings at a subsequent screening. The MST was calculated using transition rates of gastric cancer to determine the best screening interval. Results: Of the 171 979 voluntary male screenees, 61 688 (36%) underwent subsequent screening gastroscopies between January 2007 and December 2011. A total of 91 incident cases were found during 19 598 598 person-years of follow-up. The MST of gastric cancer was 2.37 years (95% confidence intervals, 1.92 to 2.96), and those aged 40 to 49 years had a shorter MST than those 50 to 69 years did. Conclusions: These findings support the 2-year interval of screening recommended by the nationwide gastric cancer screening program in Korea. Further studies for the age-specific MST among women are needed.