Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.4.283

The Korean Prediction Model for Adolescents’ Future Smoking Intentions  

Lee, Sung-Kyu (Centre on Global Change and Health, London School of Hygiene &Tropical Medicine, London, UK)
Yun, Ji-Eun (Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Institute for Health Promotion, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea)
Lee, Ja-Kyoung (Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Institute for Health Promotion, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea)
Kim, Il- Soon (Korean Association of Smoking and Health, Seoul, Korea)
Jee, Sun-Ha (Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Institute for Health Promotion, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea)
Publication Information
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health / v.43, no.4, 2010 , pp. 283-291 More about this Journal
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for future smoking intention among Korean adolescents aged 13 to 15 in order to identify the high risk group exposed to future smoking. Methods: The data was collected from a total of 5940 students who participated in a self-administrated questionnaire of a cross-sectional school-based survey, the 2004 Korea Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Chi-square tests and logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify the relevant determinants associated with intentions of adolescents’ future smoking. Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) assessment was applied to evaluate the explanation level of the developed prediction model. Results: 8.4% of male and 7.2% of female participants show their intentions of future smoking. Among non-smoking adolescents; who have past smoking experience [odds ratio (OR) 2.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92- 3.88]; who have intentions of smoking when close friends offer a cigarette (OR 31.47; 95% CI = 21.50 - 46.05); and who have friends that are mostly smokers (OR 5.27; 95% CI = 2.85 - 9.74) are more likely to be smokers in the future. The prediction model developed from this study consists of five determinants; past smoking experience; parents smoking status; friends smoking status; ownership of a product with a cigarette brand logo; and intentions of smoking from close friends’ cigarette offer. The area under the ROC curve was 0.8744 (95% CI=0.85 - 0.90) for current non-smokers. Conclusions: For efficiency, school-based smoking prevention programs need to be designed to target the high risk group exposed to future smoking through the prediction model developed by the study, instead of implementing the programs for all the students.
Keywords
Adolescent; Smoking; Intention; Schools;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
Times Cited By SCOPUS : 5
연도 인용수 순위
1 Fritz DJ. Adolescent smoking cessation: how effective have we been? J Pediartr Nurs 2000; 15(5): 299-306.   DOI   ScienceOn
2 Sargent JD, Dalton M. Does parental disapproval of smoking prevent adolescents from becoming established smokers? Pediatrics 2001; 108(6): 1256-1262.   DOI   ScienceOn
3 Chang JY. Analysis of related factors on middle school student smoking in Korea. J Korean Soc Sch Health Educ 2006; 19(2): 75-88. (Korean)
4 Distefan JM, Gilpin EA, Sargent JD, Pierce JP. Do movie stars encourage adolescents to start smoking? Evidence from California. Prev Med 1999; 28(1): 1-11.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Conley Thomson C, Siegel M, Winickoff J, Bierner L, Rigotti NA. Household smoking bans and adolescents' perceived prevalence of smoking and social acceptability of smoking. Prev Med 2005; 41(2): 349-356.   DOI   ScienceOn
6 Sargent JD, Dalton M, Beach M, Bernhardt A, Heatherton T, Stevens M. Effect of cigarette promotions on smoking uptake among adolescents. Prev Med 2000; 30(4): 320-327.   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Dalton MA, Ahrens MB, Sargent JD, Mott LA, Beach ML, Tickle JJ, et al. Relation between parental restrictions on movies and adolescent use of tobacco and alchohol. Eff Clin Pract 2002; 5(1): 1-10.
8 Sargent JD, Beach ML, Dalton MA, Mott LA, Tickle JJ, Ahrens MB, et al. Effect of seeing tobacco use in films on trying smoking among adolescents: cross sectional study. BMJ 2001; 323(7326): 1394-1397.   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Sargent JD. Smoking in films and impact on adolescent smoking: with special reference to European adolescents. Minerva Pediatr 2006; 58(1): 27-45.
10 Kim H, Kim EK, Choi ES, Kim YJ, Lee HJ, Kim JJ, et al. The determinants of adolescent smoking by gender and type of school in Korea. J Prev Med Public Health 2006; 39(5): 379-388. (Korean)   과학기술학회마을
11 De Vries H, Engels R, Kremers S, Wetzels J, Mudde A. Parents' and friends' smoking status as predictors of smoking onset: findings from six European countries. Health Educ Res 2003; 18(5): 627-636.   DOI   ScienceOn
12 Zhang L, Wang WF, Zhou G. A cross-sectional study of smoking risk factors in junior high school students in Henan, China. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 2005; 36(6): 1580-1584.
13 Dalton MA, Adachi-Mejia AM, Longacre MR, Titus- Ernstoff LT, Gibson JJ, Martin SK, et al. Parental rules and monitoring of children's movie viewing associated with children's risk for smoking and drinking. Pediatrics 2006; 118(5): 1932-1942.   DOI   ScienceOn
14 Kemppainen U, Tossavaunen K, Vartiainen E, Jokela V, Puska P, Pantelejev V, et al. Environmental factors as predictors of smoking among ninth-grade adolescents in Pitkäranta (Russian Karelia) and in eastern Finland. Res Nurs Heatlh 2006; 29(6): 543-555.   DOI   ScienceOn
15 Warren CW, Riley L, Asma S, Eriksen MP, Green L, Blanton C, et al. Tobacco use by youth: a surveillance report from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey project. Bull World Health Organ 2000; 78(7): 868-876.
16 Global Tobacco Surveillance System Collaborating Group. Global Tobacco Surveillance System(GTSS): purpose, production and Potential. J Sch Health 2005; 75(1): 15-24.   DOI   ScienceOn
17 Markham WA, Aveyard P, Thomas H, Charlton A, Lopez ML, De Vries H. What determines future smoking intentions of 12- to 13-year-old UK African-Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and white young people? Health Educ Res 2004; 19(1): 15-28.   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Miller JW, Naimi TS, Brewer RD, Jones SE. Binge drinking and associated health risk behaviors among high school students. Pediatrics 2007; 119(1): 76-85.   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Graunbaum JA, Kann L, Kinchen SA, Ross JG, Gowda VR, Collins JL, et al. Youth risk behavior surveillance: National Alternative High School Youth Behavior Survey, United States, 1998. J Sch Health 2000; 70(1): 5-17.   DOI   ScienceOn
20 Rissel C, McLellan L, Bauman A. Factors associated with delayed tobacco uptake among Vietnamese/Asian and Arabic youth in Sydney, NSW. Aust N Z J Public Health 2000; 24(1): 22-28.   DOI   ScienceOn
21 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Reducing the Health Consequences of Smoking. Twenty Five Years of Progress: a Report of the Surgeon General. U.S. Government Printing Office. 1989.
22 Rice VH, Weglicki LS, Templin T, Hammad A, Jamil H, Kulwicki A. Predictors of Arab American Adolescent Tobacco Use. Merrill Palmer Q 2006; 52(2): 327-342.   DOI
23 Miller CH, Burgoon M, Grandpre JR, Alvaro EM. Identifying principal risk factors for the initiation of adolescent smoking behaviors: the significance of psychological reactance. Health Commun 2006; 19(3): 241-252.   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Sargent JD, Dalton MA, Beach M, Bernhardt A, Pullin D, Stevens M. Cigarette promotional items in public schools. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med 1997; 151(12): 1189-1196.   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Sargent JD, Dalton M, Beach M. Exposure to cigarette promotions and smoking uptake in adolescents: evidence of a dose-response relation. Tob Control 2000; 9(2): 163-168.   DOI   ScienceOn
26 Thompson EM, Gunther AC. Cigarettes and cinema: does parental restriction of R-rated movie viewing reduce adolescent smoking susceptibility? J Adolesc Health 2007; 40(2): 181.e1-181.e6.   DOI   ScienceOn
27 Bricker JB, Peterson AV, Robyn Andersen M, Leroux BG, Bharat Rajan K, Sarason IG. Close friends', parents' and older siblings' smoking: reevaluating their influence on children's smoking. Nicotine Tob Res 2006; 8(2): 217-226.   DOI   ScienceOn
28 Park E. School-based smoking prevention programs for adolescents in South Korea: a systematic review. Health Educ Res 2006; 21(3): 407-415.   DOI   ScienceOn
29 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Projected smoking-related deaths among youth--United States. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 1996; 45(44): 971-974.
30 Gallup Korea. Survey on the Smoking Prevalence Among Adolescents. Seoul: Gallup Korea. 2008. (Korean)
31 The Korean Association of Smoking and Health. 2008 Smoking Prevalence of the Korean Middle School and High School Students. Seoul: The Korean Association of Smoking and Health. 2008. (Korean)