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A Study on Long-Term Spatial Load Forecasting Using Trending Method  

Hwang Kab-Ju (울산대 전기전자정보시스템공학부)
Choi Soo-Keon (울산대 대학원 전기공학과)
Publication Information
The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A / v.53, no.11, 2004 , pp. 604-609 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper suggests a long-term distribution area load forecasting algorithm which offers basic data for distribution planning of power system. To build forecasting model, 4-level hierarchical spatial structure is introduced: System, Region, Area, and Substation. And, each spatial load can be decided proportional to its portion in the higher level. This paper introduces the horizon year loads to improve the forecasting results. And, this paper also introduces an effective load transfer algorithm to improve forecasting stability in case of new or stopped substations. The proposed model is applied to the load forecasting of KEPCO system composed of 16 regions, 85 areas and 761 substations, and the results are compared with those of econometrics model to verify its validity.
Keywords
수요예측;추세분석법;수평년도수요;수요전달;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
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