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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2016.34.2.146

A Statistical Fitness Test of Newell's 3-detector Simplification Method for Unexpected Incident Detection in the Expressway Traffic Flow  

OH, Chang-Seok (Audit and Inspection Research Institute, The Board of Audit and Inspection)
RHO, Jeong Hyun (Graduate School of Urban Studies, Hanyang University)
PARK, Young Wook (Korea Smart Card Cooperation. Ltd.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.34, no.2, 2016 , pp. 146-157 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study is to actualize a statistical model of the 3-detector simplification model, which was proposed to detect outbreak situations by Daganzo in 1997 and to verify the statistical appropriacy thereof. This study presents the calculation process of the 3-detector simplification model and realizes the process using a statistics program. Firstly, the model was applied using data on detector of the main highways on which there is no entrances or exits. Moreover, in order to statistically verify the 3-detector simplification model, accumulative traffics for 30 seconds period, which reflects the dynamic changes of traffics due to shock wave, were estimated for outbreak traffics and steady flow, and the error of acquired data was statistically compared with that of the actual accumulative traffics. As a result, the error ratio between steady and incident cumulative flows has reached its maximum after 2-3 hours from an accident. Moreover, the incident traffic flows by accidents and the stade flows are heterogeneous in terms of their dispersion and means.
Keywords
cumulative traffic flow; incident detection; macroscopic traffic flow model; newell's 3-detector simplification method; simplified traffic stream model;
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