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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2014.32.1.013

An Impact of Gas Prices on Transit Demand Using a Time-series Analysis and a Regression Analysis  

Lee, Kwang Sub (Transport Systems Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
Eom, Jin Ki (Transport Systems Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
Moon, Dae Seop (Convergence Technology Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
Yang, Keun Yul (Green Transport and Logistics Institute, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
Lee, Jun (Transport Systems Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.32, no.1, 2014 , pp. 13-26 More about this Journal
Abstract
Depending most of its energy sources on foreign countries, Korea efforts to reduce energy consumption in transportation. While studies on the relationship between gas price and transportation demand are many in number, most previous studies have focused on automobile and Seoul. This study analyzes the impact of gas price on transit (bus and subway) demand using monthly data and for various metropolitan areas (Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, Daegu and Gwangju). The research utilizes a time-series model and a multiple regression model, and calculates modal demand elasticities of gas price. The result shows that elasticities of subway demand with respect to gas price is higher than those of bus demand. In addition, elasticities of predominantly automobile cities are more likely to be more sensitive to gas price than those of cities with well-structured transit system.
Keywords
demand elasticity; effect of gas price; multiple regression analysis; time-series analysis; transit demand;
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