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A Study on the Construction of Historical Profiles for Freeway Travel Time Forecasting  

Kim, Dong-Ho (한국교통연구원)
Rho, Jeong-Hyun (한양대학교 도시대학원)
Park, Dong-Joo (서울시립대학교 교통공학과)
Park, Jee-Hyung (한국교통연구원)
Kim, Han-Soo (서울시립대학교 교통공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.26, no.5, 2008 , pp. 131-141 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study is to propose methods for determining optimal representative value and the optimal size of historical data for reliable travel time forecasting. We selected values with the smallest mean of forecasting errors as the optimal representative value of travel time pattern data. The optimal size of historical data used was determined using the CVMSE(Cross Validated Mean Square Error) method. According to the results of applying the methods to point vehicle detection data of Korea Highway Corporation, the optimal representative value were analyzed to be median. Second, it was analyzed that 60 days' data is the optimal size of historical data usedfor travel time forecasting.
Keywords
Historical Profile; Representative Value; Size Of Historical Data; Travel Time; Forecasting Error;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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