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A Evaluation Model of AHP Results Using Monte Carlo Simulation (Depending on the Case Studies of Road and Rail)  

Sul, You-Jin (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
Chung, Sung-Bong (한국교통연구원)
Song, Ki-Han (서울대학교 공학연구소)
Chon, Kyung-Soo (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
Rhee, Sung-Mo (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.26, no.4, 2008 , pp. 195-204 More about this Journal
Abstract
Multi-Criteria Analysis is one method for optimizing decisions that include numerous characteristics and objective functions. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as a general Multi-Criteria Analysis considering many critical issues. However, since validation procedures for the decision reliability of AHP valuers had been left off existing methodologies, a new methodology including such validation procedures is required to make more reliable decisions. In this research, idea decision results are derived using Monte Carlo Simulation in cases where AHP valuers do not have expertise in the specific project, and these results are compared with the results derived from experts to develop a new analysis model to make more reliable decisions. Finally, this new analysis is applied to various field case studies of road and rail carried out by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) between 2003 and 2006 to validate the new analysis model. The study found that approximately 20% of decisions resulting from the existing methodology are considered prudent. In future studies, the authors suggest analyzing the correlation between initial weights and final results since final results are enormously influenced by the initial weight.
Keywords
Multi-attribute decision making; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Monte Carlo Simulation; Probability Distribution; Random Number Creation;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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