Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2022.38.11.153

Prediction of Changes in Demand for Urban Infrastructures Based on Population Decline and its Reorganization Method - In the Cases of Correctional Facilities in Korea -  

Noh, Hyeogjin (Dept. of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University)
Ko, Woorim (Institute of Environment and Health, Population Policy Research Center, Seoul National University)
Cho, Youngtae (Institute of Environment and Health, Population Policy Research Center, Seoul National University)
Baek, Jin (Dept. of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea / v.38, no.11, 2022 , pp. 153-161 More about this Journal
Abstract
Based on future population projections from Statistics Korea, the population decline issue in Korea is expected to intensify. Even in the planning of correctional facilities, the declining number of unconvicted prisoners was not taken into account because of the immediate overcrowding situation. The number of unconvicted prisoners also decreased due to the continuous decline in population. It has been confirmed that by 2060, the number of unconvicted prisoners will reach 74% to 50.3% of the current number of prisoners by region. Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative method for reorganizing correctional facilities to reflect the decreasing number of unconvicted prisoners in a correctional facility plan based on the number of unconvicted prisoners over the past five years and future domestic population estimation data until 2060. In the cases of the Seoul Regional Correctional Headquarter (RCH), the Daegu RCH, and the Gwangju RCH, some of the currently in use facilities must be reorganized rather than reconstructed to keep the occupancy rate close to the target occupancy rate. Meanwhile, at the Daejeon RCH, the overcrowding situation is expected to continue for the time being, even if the number of unconvicted prisoners decrease. To maintain the target occupancy rate of 85% by region through the method proposed in this study, by 2060, eight facilities in Seoul RCH, ten facilities in Daegu RCH, none in Daejeon RCH, and four facilities in Gwangju RCH should be reorganized.
Keywords
Population Decline; Urban Infrastructures; Correctional Facilities;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 Kang, E., Kwon, S., & Won, H. (2014). Elderly Inmates in Korea(II). Korean Institute of Criminology, 442-449.
2 Kim, H., & Kim, H. (2004). Determinants of Supply of Urban Public Service Facilities. EWHA Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 12, 109-128.
3 Land and Housing Institute. (2017). A Study on the Guidelines for New Towns in Korea, Korea Land & Housing Corporation, 173-222.
4 Statistics Korea. (2021). A Future Population Estimate: 2020~2070, Retrieved April 7, 2022 from http://kostat.go.kr/portal/korea/kor_nw/1/2/6/index.board?bmode=read&bSeq=&aSeq=415453&pageNo=1&rowNum=10&navCount=10&currPg=&searchInfo=&sTarget=title&sTxt=
5 An, S. (2017). A Study on Overcrowded Correctional Facilities and Solutions. Corrections Review, Vol. 27, No. 1, 55-93.
6 Yu, M., & You, Y. (2020). A Study on Characteristics of Public Facilities for the Development of Smart Shrinking Strategies in Korea Small Cities: A Case of Public Buildings in Naju City. Journal of the Korea Institute of Spatial Design, 15(7), 225-236.
7 Jiji press(時事ドットコム). (n.d.). After 2023, some of prisons and detention centers fall below 50,000 inmates less than Capacity will be closed(２３年ぶり,5万人以下に刑務所.拘置所の年末収容者-定員割れ,一部閉鎖も). (nippon.com)ニッポンドットコム, Retrieved April 1, 2021 from https://www.nippon.com/ja/news/yjj2019123000656/
8 Comite International de la Croix-Rouge(CICR). (2012). Water, Sanitation, Hygiene and Habitat in Prisons Supplementary Guidance. CICR. 42.
9 Bennett. D. M., & Lattin D. (2009). Jail Capacity Planning Guide a Systems Approach. U.S. Department of Justice National Institute of Corrections. 44.
10 Byun, P., Lim, S., & Kim, M. (2014). Policy Directions for the Supply of Public Facilities in Depopulated Areas of Korea. Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, 163-170.
11 House of Commons Justice Committee. (2019). Prison population 2022: planning for the future. House of Commons. 22-23.
12 Park, E. (2019). The Architectural Production Process of Correctional facilities as a Platform for Public Resolution with Local Communities: Improvement of Communication Methods and Establishment of Architectural Process through the Interventional Architect [Ph.D dissertation, Seoul National University]. 288.