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http://dx.doi.org/10.5392/JKCA.2013.13.11.382

Enhancing the Satisfaction Value of User Group Using Meteorological Forecast Information: Focused on the Precipitation Forecast  

Kim, In-Gyum (국립기상연구소 정책연구과)
Jung, Jihoon (국립기상연구소 정책연구과)
Kim, Jeong-Yun (국립기상연구소 정책연구과)
Shin, Jinho (국립기상연구소 정책연구과)
Kim, Baek-Jo (국립기상연구소 정책연구과)
Lee, Ki-Kwang (단국대학교 경영학과)
Publication Information
The Journal of the Korea Contents Association / v.13, no.11, 2013 , pp. 382-395 More about this Journal
Abstract
The providers of meteorological information want to know the level of satisfaction of forecast users with their services. To provide better service, meteorological communities of each nation are administering a survey on satisfaction of forecast users. However, most researchers provided these users with simple questionnaires and the respondents had to choose one answer among different satisfaction levels. So, the results of this kind of survey have low explanation power and are difficult to use in developing strategy of forecast service. In this study, instead of cost-loss concept, we applied satisfaction-dissatisfaction concept to the $2{\times}2$ contingency table, which is a useful tool to evaluate value of forecast, and estimated satisfaction value of 24h precipitation forecasts in Shanghai, China and Seoul, Korea. Moreover, not only the individual satisfaction value of forecast but the user group's satisfaction value was evaluated. As for the result, it is effective to enhance forecast accuracy to improve the satisfaction value of deterministic forecast user group, but in the case of probabilistic forecast, it is important to know the level of dissatisfaction of user group and distribution of probability threshold of forecast users. These results can help meteorological communities to search for a solution which can provide better satisfaction value to forecast users.
Keywords
Meteorological Forecast; Value of Forecast; $2{\times}2$ Contingency Table; Satisfaction Value of Group;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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