Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science (대한안전경영과학회지)

Korea Safety Management & Science (대한안전경영과학회)
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Prediction of Shelf-life for 81mm Mortar High Explosive Ammunition Using Multiple Regression Model

다중 회귀 모델을 활용한 81mm 박격포 고폭탄 저장수명 예측

  • Young-Jin Jung (Department of Industrial Engineering, INHA University) ;
  • Ji-Soo Hong (Department of Industrial Engineering, INHA University) ;
  • Kang-Young Lee (PGM R&D Institute, Hanwha Aerospace) ;
  • Sung-Woo Kang (Department of Industrial Engineering, INHA University)
  • 정영진 (인하대학교 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 홍지수 (인하대학교 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 이강영 (한화에어로스페이스 PGM 연구소) ;
  • 강성우 (인하대학교 산업경영공학과)
  • Received : 2024.06.15
  • Accepted : 2024.09.22
  • Published : 2024.09.30
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Abstract

This study aims to develop a regression model using data from the Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) to predict the shelf life of 81mm mortar high-explosive shells. Ammunition is a single-use item that is discarded after use, and its quality is managed through sampling inspections. In particular, shelf life is closely related to the performance of the propellant. This research seeks to predict the shelf life of ammunition using a regression model. The experiment was conducted using 107 ASRP data points. The dependent variable was 'Storage Period', while the independent variables were 'Mean Ammunition Velocity,' 'Standard Deviation of Mean Ammunition Velocity,' and 'Stabilizer'. The explanatory power of the regression model was an R-squared value of 0.662. The results indicated that it takes approximately 55 years for the storage grade to change from A to C and about 62 years to change from C to D. The proposed model enhances the reliability of ammunition management, prevents unnecessary disposal, and contributes to the efficient use of defense resources. However, the model's explanatory power is somewhat limited due to the small dataset. Future research is expected to improve the model with additional data collection. Expanding the research to other types of ammunition may further aid in improving the military's ammunition management system.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 2022년도 정부(방위사업청)의 재원으로 국방기술진흥연구소의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(KRIT-CT-22-081, 무기체계 CBM+특화연구센터).

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