The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY (한국해양학회지:바다)

The Korean Society of Oceanography (한국해양학회)
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Development and Assessment of LSTM Model for Correcting Underestimation of Water Temperature in Korean Marine Heatwave Prediction System

한반도 고수온 예측 시스템의 수온 과소모의 보정을 위한 LSTM 모델 구축 및 예측성 평가

  • NA KYOUNG IM (Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University) ;
  • HYUNKEUN JIN (Ocean Circulation & Climate Research Department, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology) ;
  • GYUNDO PAK (Ocean Circulation & Climate Research Department, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology) ;
  • YOUNG-GYU PARK (Ocean Circulation & Climate Research Department, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology) ;
  • KYEONG OK KIM (Ocean Circulation & Climate Research Department, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology) ;
  • YONGHAN CHOI (Korea Polar Research Institute, Division of Ocean & Atmosphere Sciences) ;
  • YOUNG HO KIM (Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
  • 임나경 (국립부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 해양학전공) ;
  • 진현근 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환기후연구부) ;
  • 박균도 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환기후연구부) ;
  • 박영규 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환기후연구부) ;
  • 김경옥 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환기후연구부) ;
  • 최용한 (극지연구소 해양대기연구본부) ;
  • 김영호 (국립부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 해양학전공)
  • Received : 2024.04.16
  • Accepted : 2024.05.29
  • Published : 2024.05.31
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Abstract

The ocean heatwave is emerging as a major issue due to global warming, posing a direct threat to marine ecosystems and humanity through decreased food resources and reduced carbon absorption capacity of the oceans. Consequently, the prediction of ocean heatwaves in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula is becoming increasingly important for marine environmental monitoring and management. In this study, an LSTM model was developed to improve the underestimated prediction of ocean heatwaves caused by the coarse vertical grid system of the Korean Peninsula Ocean Prediction System. Based on the results of ocean heatwave predictions for the Korean Peninsula conducted in 2023, as well as those generated by the LSTM model, the performance of heatwave predictions in the East Sea, Yellow Sea, and South Sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula was evaluated. The LSTM model developed in this study significantly improved the prediction performance of sea surface temperatures during periods of temperature increase in all three regions. However, its effectiveness in improving prediction performance during periods of temperature decrease or before temperature rise initiation was limited. This demonstrates the potential of the LSTM model to address the underestimated prediction of ocean heatwaves caused by the coarse vertical grid system during periods of enhanced stratification. It is anticipated that the utility of data-driven artificial intelligence models will expand in the future to improve the prediction performance of dynamical models or even replace them.

해양의 고수온 현상은 지구온난화로 인한 주요 문제 중 하나로, 식량 자원의 감소와 해양 탄소 흡수력의 저하 등, 해양 생태계와 인류에게 직접적인 위협으로 부상하고 있다. 따라서, 한반도 주변 해역에서의 고수온 예측은 해양 환경 모니터링 및 관리에 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 역학 모델 기반 한반도 고수온 예측 시스템의 성긴 해양의 수직격자체계로 인한 고수온 예측의 과소모의를 개선하기 위해 LSTM 모델을 개발하였다. 2023년에 대해 수행된 한반도 고수온 예측 시스템의 고수온 예측 결과와 LSTM 모델의 결과를 기반으로 한반도 주변의 동해 해역, 황해 해역 그리고 남해 해역에서의 고수온 예측 성능을 평가했다. 본 연구에서 개발된 LSTM 모델이 세 영역 모두에서 수온이 상승하는 시기에 수온 예측 성능을 크게 개선하는 것으로 나타났으며, 수온 상승이 시작되기 전이나 하강하는 시기에는 예측 성능의 개선 효과가 미미했다. 이는 LSTM 모델이 성층이 강화되는 환경에서 성긴 수직격자로 인해 발생하는 고수온 예측의 과소모의를 개선할 수 있는 가능성을 보여준다. 향후 역학 모델의 예측 성능 개선이나 역학 모델의 대체에 자료기반 인공지능 모델의 활용성이 확대될 것으로 기대한다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 해양수산과학기술진흥원의 지원으로 수행된 "아북극-서태평양 기인 한반도 주변 고수온 현상 규명 및 예측시스템 구축(20190344)" 연구과제의 결과임.

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