대기 (Atmosphere)

  • 제34권2호
  • /
  • Pages.217-231
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  • 2024
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  • 1598-3560(pISSN)
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  • 2288-3266(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
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한국형 수치예보모델 기반의 화산재 확산 예측시스템 구축 및 사례검증

A Case Study of the Forecasting Volcanic Ash Dispersion Using Korea Integrated Model-based HYSPLIT

  • 이우정 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 강미선 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 신승숙 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 강현석 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부)
  • Woojeong Lee (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Misun Kang (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Seungsook Shin (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Hyun-Suk Kang (Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 투고 : 2024.02.02
  • 심사 : 2024.02.23
  • 발행 : 2024.05.31
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초록

The Korea Integrated Model (KIM)-based real-time volcanic ash dispersion prediction system, which employs the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, has been developed to quantitatively predict volcanic ash dispersion in East Asia and the Northwest Pacific airspace. This system, known as KIM-HYSPLIT, automatically generates forecasts for the vertical and horizontal spread of volcanic ash up to 72 hours. These forecasts are initiated upon the receipt of a Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) from the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center by the server at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This system equips KMA forecasters with diverse volcanic ash prediction information, complemented by the Unified Model (UM)-based HYSPLIT (UM-HYSPLIT) system. Extensive experiments have been conducted using KIM-HYSPLIT across 128 different volcanic scenarios, along with qualitative comparisons with UM-HYSPLIT. The results indicate that the ash direction predictions from KIM-HYSPLIT are consistent with those from UM-HYSPLIT. However, there are slight differences in the horizontal extent and movement speed of the volcanic ash. Additionally, quantitative verifications of the KIM-HYSPLIT forecasts have been performed, including threat score evaluations, based on recent eruption cases. On average, the KIMHYSPLIT forecasts for 6 and 12 hours show better quantitative alignment with the VAA forecasts compared to UM-HYSPLIT. Nevertheless, both models tend to predict a broader horizontal spread of the ash cloud than indicated in the VAA forecasts, particularly noticeable in the 6-hour forecast period.

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과제정보

이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「위험기상 분석 및 예보기술 고도화」 (KMA2018-00121)의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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