Asia-Pacific Journal of Business (아태비즈니스연구)

KNU The Institute of Management & Economy Research (강원대학교 경영경제연구소)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Total Fertility Rate: Using a Model Considering Cross-sectional Dependence

지역 합계출산율에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석: 횡단면 의존성을 고려한 모형을 이용하여

  • So-Youn Kim (Department of Ecomonics, Andong National University) ;
  • Su-Yeol Ryu (Department of Ecomonics, Andong National University)
  • Received : 2024.02.29
  • Accepted : 2024.03.24
  • Published : 2024.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Purpose - Low fertility rate is a serious problem, and this study analyzes factors affecting total fertility rate using panel data from 16 metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea from 2000 to 2022. Design/methodology/approach - Estimating the SAR model considering the weak cross-sectional dependence that exists in variables related to the regional total fertility rate, and using the DKSE estimation method considering the strong cross-sectional dependence. Findings - Estimation results considering weak and strong cross-sectional dependence were similar, confirming the robustness of the results. Female labor force participation rate has a positive effect on total fertility rate, and employment rate has no effect. However, the interaction term is a negative (-) sign. Crude marriage rate has a positive effect on total fertility rate, and apartment price has a slightly positive effect. Environmental factor has no effect, and policy factor has a negative effect. Research implications or Originality - In order for an increase in the female labor force participation rate to lead to an increase in the total fertility rate, qualitative improvements in female employment must be made. Financial investment policies for childbirth must increase their effectiveness. The problem of low fertility rate requires not only population policy but also social, economic, cultural, environmental, and policy conditions to be considered.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 국립안동대학교 기본연구지원사업에 의하여 연구되었음.

References

  1. 공경식 (2017), "미세먼지가 출산율에 미치는 효과", 한국재정학회 학술대회 논문집, 2017(3), 1-29.
  2. 김동현, 전희정 (2021) "지역출산율의 공간적 상호의존성과 영향요인에 관한 연구: 공간패널분석을 활용하여", 국토계획, 56(4), 173-193.
  3. 김사현, 홍경준 (2014) "출산율 및 여성노동참여율에 대한 가족정책의 영향: 정책균형관점에서 본 OECD 21개국 비교연구", 사회복지정책, 41(2), 213-238. https://doi.org/10.15855/SWP.2014.41.2.213
  4. 김소연, 최기홍, 류수열 (2016), "관광산업과 고용율의 인과관계 분석", 관광레저연구, 28(7), 5-18.
  5. 김지현, 최숙희 (2023), "지역의 소득수준과 주택가격이 출산율에 미치는 영향", 대한부동산학회지, 41(1), 141-160.
  6. 박아연 (2017), "OECD 국가 합계출산율 트렌드 분석을 통한 정책적 함의 도출", 보건복지포럼, 2017(8), 29-41. https://doi.org/10.23062/2017.08.4
  7. 박종훈, 김찬성, 이성우 (2020), "교통접근도가 인구유입 및 지역 내 총생산에 미치는 영향 분석", 국토연구, 25-40.
  8. 서미숙 (2013), "주택가격 변화에 따른 여성 출산율에 관한 연구", 여성경제연구, 10(1), 63-79.
  9. 오삼권, 권영주 (2018), "지방자치단체별 출산율 영향요인 연구: 사회.문화적, 경제적, 정책적 요인을 중심으로", 국가정책연구, 32(1), 55-81. https://doi.org/10.17327/IPPA.2018.32.1.003
  10. 은석 (2015), "교육 및 사회정책의 출산율 고양효과에 대한 비교 연구: system-GMM을 활용한 26개국 18년간의 패널자료 분석결과를 중심으로", 보건사회연구, 35(2), 5-31. https://doi.org/10.15709/HSWR.2015.35.2.5
  11. 이철희 (2018), "한국의 출산장려정책은 실패했는가? 2000년-2016년 출산율 변화요인 분해", 경제학연구, 66(3), 5-42. https://doi.org/10.22841/KJES.2018.66.3.001
  12. 정진화, 김현숙, 임지은 (2019), "OECD 국가들의 합계출산율: Becker 및 Easterlin 가설 검증과 가족정책의 효과와 시사점", 재정학연구, 12(4), 1-47.
  13. 최은희, 조택희 (2016), "패널분석을 이용한 합계출산율에 영향을 미치는 요인분석", 한국콘텐츠학회논문지, 16(8), 59-70. https://doi.org/10.5392/JKCA.2016.16.08.059
  14. 홍정림 (2013), "보육비 지원 정책의 효과성 분석", 한국인구학, 36(4), 95-118.
  15. 황진영 (2013), "여성의 경제활동참가, 노동시장의 불안정성 및 합계출산율: 국가 간 실증분석", 재정정책논집, 15(1), 81-105.
  16. 황진영, 이종하 (2012), "한국에서 여성의 고용, 출산 및 성장 간의 상호관련성", 경제연구, 30(3), 19-43.
  17. 네이버, 식물학 백과
  18. 네이버 지식백과, 통계용어.지표의 이해
  19. Ahlburg, D. and R. Cassen (1993), Population and Development, International handbook of Development Economics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 316-327.
  20. Ahn, N. and P. Mira (2002), "A Note on the Changing Relationship between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries", Journal of Population Economics, 15, 667-682. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001480100078
  21. Ashraf, Q., D. Weil and J. Wilde (2014), "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth", Population and Development Review, 39(1), 97-130. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00575.x
  22. Bertrand, M., C. Patricia, O. Claudia and P. Jessica (2016), Social Norms, Labor Market Opportunities, and the Marriage Gap for Skilled Women, Working Paper, No. 22015.
  23. Bongaarts, J. (1987), "The Proximate Determinanats of Fertility", Technology in Society, 9(3-4), 243-260. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-791X(87)90003-0
  24. Bongaarts, J. and S.C. Watkins (1996), "Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions", Population and Development Review, 22(4), 639-682. https://doi.org/10.2307/2137804
  25. Boydell, V., R. Mori, S. Shahrook and S. Gietel-Basten (2023), "Low Fertility and Fertility Policies in the Asia-Pacific Region", Global Health & Medicine, 5(5), 271-277. https://doi.org/10.35772/ghm.2023.01058
  26. Brewster, K.L. and R.R. Rindfuss (2000) "Fertility and Women's Employment in Industrialized Nations", Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 271-296. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.271
  27. Caldwell, J.C. (1976), "Toward a Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory", Population and Development Review, 2(3/4), 321-366. https://doi.org/10.2307/1971615
  28. Castles, F. (2003) "The World Turned Upside Down: Below Replacement Fertility, Changing Preferences and Family-Friendly Public Policy in 21 OECD Countries", Journal of European Social Policy, 13(3), 209-227. https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287030133001
  29. Chudik, A., M.H. Pesaran and E. Tosetti (2011), "Weak and Strong Cross-section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels", The Econometrics Journal, 14(1), 45-90. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2010.00330.x
  30. D'Addio, A.C. and M.D. Marco (2005), Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies, Working Paper, No. 27, OECD.
  31. Davis, K. and J. Blake (1956), "Social Structure and Fertility: An Analytic Framework", Economic Development and Cultural Change, 4(3), 211-235. https://doi.org/10.1086/449714
  32. De Laat, J. and A. Sevilla-Sanz (2011), "The Fertility and Women's Labor Force Participation Puzzle in OECD Countries: The Role of Men's Home Production", Feminist Economics, 7(2), 87-119. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2011.573484
  33. Dettling, L.L. and S.K. Melissa (2014), "House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby", Journal of Public Economics, 110, 82-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.09.009
  34. Easterlin, R.A. and E.M. Crimmins (1985), The Fertility Revolution: A Supply-Demand Analysis, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
  35. Elhorst, J.P. (2010), Spatial Panel Data Models, in M.M. Fischer and A. Getis(eds.), Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis, 377-407.
  36. Engelhardt, H. and A. Prskawetz (2004), "On the Changing Correlation between Fertility and Female Employment over Space and Time", European Journal of Population, 20, 35-62. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:EUJP.0000014543.95571.3b
  37. Feyrer, J., B. Sacerdote and A. Stern, "Will the Stork Return to Europe? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 3-22.
  38. Fan, J., Y. Liao and J. Yao (2015), "Power Enhancement in High-Dimensional Cross-Sectional Tests", Econometrica, 83, 1497-1541. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA12749
  39. Gauthier A. H. (2007), "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility in Industrialized Countries: A Review of the Literature", Population Research and Policy Review, 26, 323-346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-007-9033-x
  40. Gonzalez, L. (2013), "The Effect of a Universal Child Benefit on Conceptions, Abortions, and Early Maternal Labor Supply", American Economic Journal, 5(3), 88-160. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.3.160
  41. Gubhaju, B. and Y. Moriki-Durand (2003), "Fertility Levels and Trends in the Asian and Pacific Region", Population and Development, Selected Issues, 35-87.
  42. Guinnane, T.W., B.S. Okun and J. Trussell (1994), "What Do We Know about the Timing of Fertility Transitions in Europe?", Demography, 31(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061905
  43. Hoechle, D. (2007), "Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-sectional Dependence", The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0700700301
  44. Juodis, A. and S. Reese (2022), "The Incidental Parameters Problem in Testing for Remaining Cross-section Correlation", Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 40(3), 1191-1203. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.1906687
  45. Kalwij, A. (2010), "The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe", Demography, 47(2), 503-519. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104
  46. Le, H., A. Newman, J. Menzies, C. Zheng and J. Fermelis (2020), "Work-life Balance in Asia: A systematic review", Human Resource Management Review, 30(4), 100766.
  47. Lee, L.F. and J. Yu (2010), "A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Model with Both Time and Individual Fixed Effects", Econometric Theory, 26, 564-597. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466609100099
  48. Lee, S. and H. Choi (2015), Lowest-low Fertility and Policy Responses in South Korea. In: Low and Lower Fertility, Springer International Publishing, 107-123.
  49. LeSage, J.P. and K.R. Pace (2009), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton.
  50. Muniz, J.O. (2009), "Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Ten Years of Fertility Decline in Brazil", Population Review, 48(2), 32-65. https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2009.0000
  51. Pesaran, M.H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 1240.
  52. Pesaran, M.H. (2007), "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test In The Presence Of Cross-section Dependence", Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
  53. Pesaran, M.H. (2015), "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels", Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2014.956623
  54. Pesaran, M.H. and E. Tosetti (2011), "Large Panels with Common Ffactors and Spatial Correlation", Journal of Econometrics, 161(2), 182-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.12.003
  55. Pesaran, M.H. and Y. Xie (2021), A Bias-Corrected CD Test for Error Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Models with Latent Factors, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 2158.
  56. Suzuki, T. (2008), "Korea's Strong Familism and Lowest-Low Fertility", International Journal of Japanese Sociology, 17(1), 30-41. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6781.2008.00116.x
  57. Thevenon, O. (2018), Tackling Child Poverty in Korea, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers. 219.
  58. UN (United Nations) (2002), Preliminary Version of Papers Presented at the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, New York, 11-14.
  59. UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic Social Affairs) (2022), World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results, New York, United Nations.
  60. UNPD (United Nations Population Division) (2019), Total fertility by Region, Subregion and Country, Retrieved from World Population Prospects: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Fertility/.